T-Mobile stock forecast
T-Mobile’s weighted forecast reaches $278.03 in October 2029. It hinges on whether T-Mobile converts acquired customer growth and network investment into durable cash without weakening service.
Where could T-Mobile’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted path starts at $153.43 today and reaches $201.09 in October 2027. That first leg represents a +34% return. The final weighted price is $278.03 in October 2029, a +91% return. Bear probability is 25%; base probability is 55%. Bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 157.82 (+6 %) | 146.05 (+0 %) | 161.92 (+13 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 204.42 (+36 %) | 247.78 (+68 %) | 279.06 (+92 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 246.03 (+64 %) | 339.51 (+129 %) | 420.31 (+186 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 201.09 (+34 %) | 240.70 (+63 %) | 278.03 (+91 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for T-Mobile?
The bear case begins at $157.82 in October 2027 and ends at $161.92 in October 2029, including dividends, with a 25% probability. Plan changes raise churn, account growth weakens and capacity or satellite competition forces more promotions. EBITDA falls, the multiple compresses to 6x and lower cash generation limits buybacks. The probability remains below the base because EBITDA has risen every year in the recent record.
The base case has a 55% probability. It assumes the 2026–27 plans broadly hold, integration and digitalization improve operating leverage, and buybacks continue within cash generation. The multiple stays at 7.5x, producing $204.42 first and $279.06 by the final date.
The bull case rises from $246.03 to $420.31 and carries a 20% probability. Retention holds, premium plans lift account economics, digital savings exceed transition costs and broadband grows without disproportionate investment. Stronger cash then funds larger buybacks and supports multiple expansion. Several conditions must succeed together, which limits its odds.
How much cash does T-Mobile really make?
In 2025, operating cash flow was $27,950 million. After broader capital spending of $12,523 million, free cash flow was $15,427 million. Subtracting $829 million of stock compensation gives an economic “real” free cash flow of $14,598 million, recognising that employees received part of their compensation through shareholders’ ownership.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 27,950 | 22,293 | 18,559 | 16,781 | 13,917 |
| − Capital spending | 12,523 | 12,311 | 10,811 | 17,301 | 21,692 |
| = Free cash flow | 15,427 | 9,982 | 7,748 | -520 | -7,775 |
| − Stock pay | 829 | 649 | 667 | 595 | 540 |
| = Real free cash flow | 14,598 | 9,333 | 7,081 | -1,115 | -8,315 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is higher because it adds money from selling towers and securitizing financial interests, while leaving out spending on spectrum and other intangible assets; our count includes those cash flows and spending.
What does a T-Mobile investor pay today?
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 153.425 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.9% |
What this means. The free cash flow yields include the finance subsidiary’s cash flows, so they may not match a simpler calculation for the main business alone.