AppLovin stock forecast
AppLovin's weighted forecast puts the shares at $431.04 in October 2027. It hinges on campaign returns and repeat advertiser spending rising enough to justify higher training and inference costs.
Where could AppLovin's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast puts the shares at $431.04 in October 2027, a 54% return from today. It reaches $695.52 in October 2029, a 149% return. The bear case carries 30% probability. The base case carries 50%. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 225.08 (-19 %) | 204.98 (-27 %) | 220.16 (-21 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 425.02 (+52 %) | 529.99 (+90 %) | 665.02 (+138 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 755.02 (+170 %) | 1055.12 (+278 %) | 1484.79 (+432 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 431.04 (+54 %) | 537.51 (+92 %) | 695.52 (+149 %) |
What has to go right for AppLovin, and what could go wrong?
The bear case lowers margin to 62%. Earnings fall to $5,600 million at the second date because higher budgets produce weaker returns, web tests fail to repeat and compute costs rise. The bull case retains a 66% margin and reaches $18,550 million at the final date, requiring 40% annual earnings growth from stronger model gains and repeat retail spending.
The bull path begins at $755.02 and ends at $1,484.79. Its 20% probability reflects the demanding combination of 40% earnings growth, a 25.5x multiple and substantial buybacks. The upside is plausible if incremental advertising revenue exceeds training and inference costs, but mature evidence of repeat non-gaming spend remains limited.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 6,760 (6,200 / 9,464) | 8,450 (5,600 / 13,250) | 10,562 (6,000 / 18,550) |
| Shares (millions) | 329 (336 / 325) | 326 (336 / 321) | 323 (337 / 319) |
| Dividends per share | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.00) |
| Price to earnings | 20.67 (12.18 / 25.90) | 20.42 (12.30 / 25.58) | 20.35 (12.35 / 25.54) |
How much cash does AppLovin really make?
Reported operating cash flow was 3,971,094 in 2025. Stock compensation is added back because it does not leave the bank when recorded, but it remains an ownership cost. The useful question is therefore twofold: how much cash reaches the business, and how much of that cash must be spent to offset employee dilution or support the computing engine?
Adjusted EBITDA can make the business look exceptionally profitable because it removes expenses such as share-based compensation. Shares paid to employees are not an immediate cash payment, but they dilute existing owners. Free cash flow is a separate test: 2025 produced $3.95 billion, while the latest quarter produced $863.3 million. There is no regular dividend, so shareholders depend on future value and effective repurchases.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| − Capital spending | 6,362 | 14,446 | 15,427 |
| − Stock pay | 207,958 | 357,431 | 342,551 |
What this means. Stock pay is subtracted even though no cash leaves the company because giving shares to employees reduces each existing owner's share of the company.