Meta stock forecast
The weighted price reaches 981.08 in October 2027. Repeatable AI-driven conversion gains must translate into advertiser spending, stronger margins and cash after investment.
Where could Meta shares be by 2029?
The weighted price reaches 981.08 in October 2027, a 36% return including dividends. It reaches 1144.01 in October 2028, a 59% return. By October 2029, it reaches 1319.46, an 84% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 591.94 (-18 %) | 530.35 (-26 %) | 513.21 (-28 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 996.08 (+38 %) | 1118.05 (+56 %) | 1230.82 (+72 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1426.28 (+98 %) | 1982.48 (+176 %) | 2571.04 (+258 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 981.08 (+36 %) | 1144.01 (+59 %) | 1319.46 (+84 %) |
What has to go right for Meta, and what could go wrong?
Revenue is the main engine. The base case uses growth of 23% in FY2026 and 18% in FY2027, then 16% and 14% as the base becomes larger. The bear path falls from 20% to 6%, while the bull path stays above base from 26% to 20%. First-half revenue was $117,111 million, September guidance was $61–64 billion, and Q2 impressions and average ad prices rose 14% and 12%.
Margins initially absorb the buildout. Base EBITDA margin rises from 44.5% to 48%; bear falls from 43% to 39%; bull rises from 46% to 54%. The starting gap reflects legal costs and infrastructure spending, while the later spread depends on capacity utilization.
| FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 23.0 % (20.0 % / 26.0 %) | 18.0 % (13.0 % / 24.0 %) | 16.0 % (9.0 % / 22.0 %) | 14.0 % (6.0 % / 20.0 %) |
| Measure (EBITDA / cash flow) | 109,999 (103,698 / 116,480) | 132,715 (109,004 / 153,855) | 159,025 (115,844 / 199,195) | 185,146 (122,795 / 248,227) |
| Net debt | 32,695 (32,895 / 37,334) | 87,414 (61,979 / 99,606) | 134,096 (71,150 / 156,475) | 166,657 (69,820 / 199,728) |
| Buybacks | 5,000 (0.00 / 15,000) | 15,000 (0.00 / 30,000) | 22,000 (5,000 / 40,000) | 28,000 (10,000 / 50,000) |
| Dividend per share | 2.10 (2.10 / 2.10) | 2.20 (2.10 / 2.20) | 2.31 (2.10 / 2.42) | 2.43 (2.10 / 2.66) |
How much cash does Meta really make?
Stock compensation is a real cost to existing owners even when no cash leaves that day. Employees receive valuable shares or share-linked awards, and those claims can dilute other shareholders. Subtracting stock-based pay from free cash flow produces an analytical measure of what owners might more realistically regard as available.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 115,800 | 91,328 | 71,113 | 50,475 | 57,683 |
| Capital spending | 69,691 | 37,256 | 27,045 | 31,186 | 18,690 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 46,109 | 54,072 | 44,068 | 19,289 | 38,993 |
| Stock-based pay | 20,427 | 16,690 | 14,027 | 11,992 | 9,164 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 25,682 | 37,382 | 30,041 | 7,297 | 29,829 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 9.98 | 14.30 | 11.43 | 2.70 | 10.43 |
What does an investor pay today for Meta?
A price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of annual profit. A trailing P/E uses recorded earnings; a forward P/E uses an estimate, so its denominator may never arrive. EPS means earnings per share, and it can rise through higher profit or fewer shares. Meta’s reported EPS also contains major tax effects: a $15.93 billion non-cash tax charge reduced third-quarter 2025 profit, while an $8.03 billion benefit increased first-quarter 2026 profit. The apparent gap between trailing and forward valuation therefore does not represent pure business growth.