eBay stock forecast
eBay's weighted forecast is $122.88 in October 2029, a +6% return. It hinges on broader marketplace growth, Depop’s profitability and cash-funded buybacks.
Where could eBay's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $108.18 in October 2027, a −9% return. It is $122.88 in October 2029, a +6% return. The bear case carries 30% probability. The base case carries 50%. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 75.19 (-36 %) | 61.97 (-46 %) | 53.20 (-53 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 114.48 (-4 %) | 121.88 (+4 %) | 127.81 (+10 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 141.92 (+19 %) | 175.24 (+48 %) | 215.11 (+83 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 108.18 (-9 %) | 114.58 (-3 %) | 122.88 (+6 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for eBay?
The bear case keeps earnings near $2,063 million because revenue growth slows and margins fall from 16.5% as trade friction, shipping, promotion and Depop costs weigh on profit. The bull case reaches $3,326 million as focus-category strength broadens, advertising adds transactions and margins rise to 19.8%. Focus-category GMV grew 26% in Q2, but international GMV grew only 4%, so the evidence supports upside without making it certain.
How much cash does eBay really make after stock pay?
Adjusted profit can clarify ordinary operations, but it is not free of economic costs. eBay excludes stock compensation from its non-GAAP measures, although stock pay was $607 million in 2025. It does not require an immediate cash payment, but it can dilute shareholders. Recurring restructuring and executive-bonus charges also deserve attention rather than automatic exclusion.
Free cash flow — Excluding the $292 million final repatriation tax payment, 2025 free cash flow rises from $1,484 million to $1,776 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 1,484 | 1,956 | 1,975 | 2,178 | 2,649 |
| − Stock pay | 607 | 590 | 575 | 494 | 477 |
| = Real free cash flow | 877 | 1,366 | 1,400 | 1,684 | 2,172 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 13.4% | 19.0% | 19.5% | 22.2% | 25.4% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.9% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 17.2% | 20.8% |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but it gives employees part ownership, so we subtract its value to show what is truly left for shareholders.
What does an investor pay today for eBay?
Buybacks can raise earnings per share because fewer shares divide the same profit. But when repurchases exceed free cash flow, the return depends partly on the balance sheet. The dividend yield measures current cash income, while the real free cash flow yield subtracts stock-based compensation from free cash flow; neither replaces the need to test GMV, take rate, and recurring cash generation.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 120.28 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 25.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 17.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.6% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.0% |
What this means. The enterprise value may be too low because the balance sheet used does not yet show the cash paid for the Depop acquisition.