ADP dividend: cash coverage and yield
ADP paid $2,626.3 million in dividends in fiscal 2026, while its forecast dividend per share rises to $7.48, then $8.08 and $8.72. Fiscal 2026 free cash flow covered dividends by about 1.82 times.
How much does ADP pay per share?
The base dividend rises to $7.48 per share, then $8.08 and $8.72. The bear case holds at $6.80 before reaching $6.94; the bull reaches $7.48, $8.24 and $9.08. The base is below recent dividend growth, but FY2026 free cash flow covered dividends by about 1.82 times.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 4,952 (4,646 / 5,053) | 5,338 (4,712 / 5,500) | 5,737 (4,826 / 6,019) |
| Shares (millions) | 390 (392 / 388) | 384 (388 / 381) | 378 (384 / 373) |
| Dividends per share | 7.48 (6.80 / 7.48) | 8.08 (6.80 / 8.24) | 8.72 (6.94 / 9.08) |
| Price to earnings | 22.00 (19.00 / 24.00) | 21.00 (17.00 / 25.00) | 20.00 (16.00 / 26.00) |
Does ADP's cash cover its dividend?
Fiscal 2026 makes the policy clear. ADP paid $2,626.3 million in dividends and spent $2,083.3 million on buybacks. Together, those payments absorbed $4,709.6 million. That was 98.6% of free cash flow. The January 2026 authorization for $6 billion of future repurchases was permission to buy shares, not an immediate cash payment.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 4,776.1 | 4,392.7 | 3,594.2 | 3,636.0 | 2,546.1 |
| − Dividends paid | 2,626.3 | 2,398.9 | 2,183.1 | 1,903.6 | 1,659.0 |
| − Share buybacks | 2,083.3 | 1,280.5 | 1,231.7 | 1,121.4 | 1,969.4 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 66.5 | 713.3 | 179.4 | 611.0 | |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 98.6% | 83.8% | 95.0% | 83.2% | 142.5% |
What this means. The cash increase does not match the cash balance because the increase includes money held for clients, while the cash balance leaves that money out.
What could change ADP's dividend?
The forecast would move toward the bear case if bookings convert slowly, pays per control remains near zero growth, or retention falls beyond the guided decline. Client-funds yields and balances would also matter, as would PEO pass-through growth through FY2029.
What is ADP's dividend yield at its share price?
At $280.32, ADP trades at 25.6x trailing and 22.9x forward earnings, against a 4.3% free cash flow yield and 2.4% dividend yield. Revenue growth slowed from 9.9% in fiscal 2022 to 6.7% in fiscal 2026, while operating margin and the company’s own real free cash flow rose as shares of revenue. U.S. pays per control growth was 1.0% in fiscal 2026.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 280.32 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.4% |
What this means. The next-year profit measure uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is an estimate rather than a result the company has already earned.