Intuit stock forecast
The weighted forecast is $318.88 in October 2027 and reaches $456.75 in October 2029. It hinges on paying-customer growth, ARPC, product attachment and retention moving together.
Where could Intuit's shares be by 2029?
The weighted October 2027 price is $318.88, a 2% loss including dividends. It rises to $373.18, a 17% gain, in October 2028. At the final date it reaches $456.75, a 44% gain.
The final range runs from $180.64 to $801.45. Today’s price is $330.17. The bear case has a 30% probability, the base case 50%, and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 221.08 (-31 %) | 179.98 (-42 %) | 180.64 (-40 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 319.47 (-1 %) | 392.51 (+23 %) | 484.54 (+53 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 464.08 (+42 %) | 614.63 (+90 %) | 801.45 (+149 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 318.88 (-2 %) | 373.18 (+17 %) | 456.75 (+44 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving more weight to cases considered more likely, not a guaranteed price.
What has to go right for Intuit, and what could go wrong?
The outcome turns on paying-customer growth, ARPC, product attachment and retention moving together. AI and mid-market growth—businesses larger than small firms but smaller than large corporations—must show task accuracy, expert rework, service cost, paid adoption and retention, not usage alone. The October 2026 quarter is the first checkpoint; reporting is estimated for November 19, with revenue guided to $4,294–$4,313 million. Sequence’s October 15, 2026 acquisition agreement adds an integration and adoption test; its price was undisclosed. The thesis is durable cash generation from QuickBooks and assisted tax, not price, mix or tax timing alone.
How much cash does Intuit really make?
Stock compensation explains part of the gap. Intuit recorded $2,056 million of share-based compensation. It is added back because no cash leaves immediately, but employees still receive valuable ownership. Subtracting it from free cash flow leaves $6,561 million of “real free cash flow”, an owner-cost measure rather than a company-reported subtotal.
| Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 8,838 | 6,207 | 4,884 | 5,046 | 3,889 |
| − Capital spending | 221 | 124 | 250 | 260 | 229 |
| = Free cash flow | 8,617 | 6,083 | 4,634 | 4,786 | 3,660 |
| − Stock pay | 2,056 | 1,968 | 1,940 | 1,712 | 1,308 |
| = Real free cash flow | 6,561 | 4,115 | 2,694 | 3,074 | 2,352 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches our count, but real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares gives away part of the company even though no cash leaves today.
What does an investor pay today for Intuit?
At US$330.17 and a forward P/E of 14.4x, the implied future EPS is about US$22.93. That is close to management’s fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance of US$22.88–US$23.12. But Intuit now includes stock compensation in adjusted earnings, so comparisons with older adjusted figures are hazardous.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 330.17 |
| Market value (calculated) | 88,233.3101 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 88,702.3101 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.4x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.4% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings figure uses analysts’ expected profit, not profit the company has already earned.