ADP stock forecast
ADP's weighted forecast is $273.19 in October 2027 and $301.74 in October 2029, with bear/base/bull probabilities of 23%/58%/19%. It hinges on service growth and platform execution.
Where could ADP's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is $273.19 (+0%) in October 2027 and $301.74 (+16%) in October 2029, with bear/base/bull probabilities of 23%/58%/19%; the three-year range is $201.24 to $419.11. The outcome turns on service growth, client-funds income, and whether Lyric, WorkForce Suite, and Global Payroll bookings become active customers through accurate migrations with lower service effort. The October 28, 2026 results are the next test of hiring, retention, margins, and fiscal 2027 guidance. The investment case depends on service growth and platform execution, not client-funds income alone.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 23 % | 225.13 (-17 %) | 206.51 (-21 %) | 201.24 (-21 %) |
| Base | 58 % | 279.34 (+2 %) | 291.92 (+10 %) | 303.14 (+17 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 312.56 (+14 %) | 361.18 (+34 %) | 419.11 (+58 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 273.19 (+0 %) | 285.43 (+7 %) | 301.74 (+16 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for ADP?
The base path follows management’s 5%–6% revenue and 9%–11% adjusted EPS guidance, with gradual operating leverage. The first year also aligns with the analysts’ next-twelve-month estimate, which implies roughly $4.9bn of earnings at about 400m shares. The bear case reflects 0%–1% pays-per-control growth, weaker retention, lower client-funds income and PEO margin pressure. The bull case requires bookings from Lyric, WorkForce Suite and global payroll to convert into customers and lower service effort. The forecast excludes unusual alignment and settlement charges.
How much cash does ADP really make?
Stock compensation adds another economic cost. ADP recorded $242.6 million of stock pay without an equivalent current cash payment. Deducting it gives analytical real free cash flow of $4,533.5 million. Client payroll money belongs in a separate reconciliation, because it should not be subtracted again from corporate operating cash.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,441.2 | 4,939.7 | 4,157.6 | 4,207.6 | 3,099.5 |
| − Capital spending | 665.1 | 547.0 | 563.4 | 571.6 | 553.4 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,776.1 | 4,392.7 | 3,594.2 | 3,636.0 | 2,546.1 |
| − Stock pay | 242.6 | 266.1 | 243.5 | 220.4 | 201.7 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,533.5 | 4,126.6 | 3,350.7 | 3,415.6 | 2,344.4 |
What this means. The working capital amount is already included in cash from operations, so it is not subtracted again when calculating free cash flow.
What does an investor pay for ADP today?
Enterprise value estimates the cost of acquiring the operating business after accounting for debt and usable corporate cash. Client funds are different: ADP held about $44.0 billion for clients and owed about $44.4 billion against those balances. A buyer cannot spend that money. The table brings together the current price, valuation measures and cash yields that frame the purchase.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 280.32 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 25.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 22.9x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 5.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
What this means. The next-year profit measure uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is an estimate rather than a result the company has already earned.