ICBC dividend
ICBC’s dividend per share rose from RMB0.29 in 2021 to RMB0.31 in 2025. ICBC’s dividend is supported by retained earnings, but lending growth and unexpected losses draw on the same capital.
How much does ICBC pay per share?
Dividend per share rose from RMB0.29 in 2021 to RMB0.31 in 2025. EPS rose from RMB0.95 to RMB1.00. The implied payout remained about a third, leaving most ordinary earnings available for retention.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| − Dividends, per share | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| = Kept, per share | 0.69 | 0.68 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| Diluted shares (average of the year), change | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Does ICBC’s dividend fit its cash and capital needs?
A profitable bank cannot distribute every yuan it earns. New lending normally requires capital against additional RWA, while losses beyond existing allowances reduce earnings and capital. Dividends remove capital that could otherwise support growth or absorb losses.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Earnings for common shareholders | 356,798 | 350,900 | 349,029 | 346,322 | 338,731 |
| − Dividends declared on common shares | 110,593 | 109,773 | 109,203 | 108,169 | 104,534 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Kept to grow and build capital | 246,205 | 241,127 | 239,826 | 238,153 | 234,197 |
| Paid out, % of earnings for common | 31.0% | 31.3% | 31.3% | 31.2% | 30.9% |
What could change ICBC’s dividend?
Base DPS is RMB0.3022 in 2027 and RMB0.31 in 2028. It reaches RMB0.32 in 2029, consistent with the established payout near 31% and a history of stable distributions. The bear case holds RMB0.3022 initially, then cuts DPS to RMB0.27 as credit and capital pressure rise. The bull case starts at RMB0.31 and reaches RMB0.34 in 2028. It reaches RMB0.37 in 2029 because stronger income supports faster distribution growth.
The view would move toward the bear case if property-linked or local-government stress raises impairment charges through FY2027–FY2029. A faster fade in deposit repricing, or an issue that earns too little, would further reduce EPS, ROE and the multiple.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value | 4,347,000 (4,181,000 / 4,421,000) | 4,611,000 (4,333,000 / 4,704,000) | 4,883,000 (4,502,000 / 5,001,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 369,206 (373,073 / 368,171) | 369,206 (373,073 / 368,171) | 369,206 (373,073 / 368,171) |
| Dividends per share | 0.30 (0.30 / 0.31) | 0.31 (0.27 / 0.34) | 0.32 (0.27 / 0.37) |
| Price to book value | 0.55 (0.42 / 0.65) | 0.55 (0.36 / 0.72) | 0.55 (0.32 / 0.80) |
What is ICBC’s dividend yield against its share price?
The 4.9% dividend yield offers a practical check. If the dividend and share price remain flat, that is approximately the investor’s return before tax and costs. A higher long-term return requires growing distributions or a higher eventual selling price.