ICBC stock forecast
ICBC's weighted case is HKD7.25 by October 2027 and HKD8.04 by October 2029, with bear, base and bull probabilities of 28%, 57% and 15%. It hinges on stable margins, contained credit losses and adequate returns on retained or new capital.
Where could ICBC's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted case is HKD7.25 by October 2027, a 1% return, and HKD8.04 by October 2029, a 22% return. Bear, base and bull probabilities are 28%, 57% and 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 5.52 (-22 %) | 4.90 (-26 %) | 4.53 (-26 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 7.59 (+6 %) | 8.05 (+17 %) | 8.53 (+28 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 9.15 (+27 %) | 10.79 (+54 %) | 12.74 (+86 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 7.25 (+1 %) | 7.58 (+11 %) | 8.04 (+22 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for ICBC?
The bear case adds credit losses, including RMB150bn in the first period, because impaired loans rose even as impairment charges declined. The bull case assumes stronger earnings and contained losses, supported by first-half net interest income growth of 8.82%.
The base multiple is 0.55x throughout, close to today’s 0.58x and the 0.51–0.60x peer range. The bear multiple falls from 0.42x to 0.36x. It reaches 0.32x as credit losses weaken confidence in book value. The bull multiple rises from 0.65x to 0.72x. It reaches 0.80x if margins stabilise, fees grow and new capital earns attractive returns.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value | 4,347,000 (4,181,000 / 4,421,000) | 4,611,000 (4,333,000 / 4,704,000) | 4,883,000 (4,502,000 / 5,001,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 369,206 (373,073 / 368,171) | 369,206 (373,073 / 368,171) | 369,206 (373,073 / 368,171) |
| Dividends per share | 0.30 (0.30 / 0.31) | 0.31 (0.27 / 0.34) | 0.32 (0.27 / 0.37) |
| Price to book value | 0.55 (0.42 / 0.65) | 0.55 (0.36 / 0.72) | 0.55 (0.32 / 0.80) |
What does ICBC earn and give back to shareholders?
A profitable bank cannot distribute every yuan it earns. New lending normally requires capital against additional RWA, while losses beyond existing allowances reduce earnings and capital. Dividends remove capital that could otherwise support growth or absorb losses.
Dividend per share rose from RMB0.29 in 2021 to RMB0.31 in 2025. EPS rose from RMB0.95 to RMB1.00. The implied payout remained about a third, leaving most ordinary earnings available for retention.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit after tax | 370,766 | 366,946 | 365,116 | 362,110 | 350,216 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.00 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| Dividend per share | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.29 |