CCB stock forecast
The weighted path reaches HKD 10.17 by October 2027, with the bear, base and bull cases at 25%, 55% and 20% probability. CCB's outcome hinges on cheaper funding, contained credit charges and repeatable earnings.
Where could CCB's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted path reaches HKD 10.17 by October 2027, a 9% return with dividends. It reaches HKD 10.61 by October 2028, a 19% return. By October 2029, it reaches HKD 11.12, a 29% return.
The bear endpoint is HKD 6.68. The bull endpoint is HKD 14.57, compared with today's HKD 9.73. The base case is most likely at 55%. The bear case gets 25%, while the bull case gets 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 8.40 (-9 %) | 7.58 (-13 %) | 6.68 (-18 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 10.50 (+13 %) | 11.17 (+25 %) | 11.88 (+37 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 11.48 (+23 %) | 12.87 (+43 %) | 14.57 (+66 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 10.17 (+9 %) | 10.61 (+19 %) | 11.12 (+29 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for CCB?
The base case uses next-12-month EPS of CNY 1.33874, followed by growth of about 4%. It retains 69% of earnings after a 31% payout, consistent with positive earnings, rising ordinary equity through 2025 and the proposed 31% interim payout. The bear case starts with EPS of CNY 1.10. That falls to CNY 1.05 in 2028 and CNY 1.00 in 2029, alongside a separate CNY 100,000 million annual credit-loss deduction. This reflects impaired loans of CNY 378,976 million and special-mention loans of CNY 519,324 million at June 2026. The bull case starts at CNY 1.50, then rises to CNY 1.55 and CNY 1.62 as funding costs, fees and credit costs improve.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value | 3,902,505 (3,748,805 / 3,941,405) | 4,153,905 (3,841,105 / 4,220,905) | 4,415,305 (3,924,205 / 4,513,005) |
| Shares (millions) | 261,600 (261,600 / 261,600) | 261,600 (261,600 / 261,600) | 261,600 (261,600 / 261,600) |
| Dividends per share | 0.41 (0.39 / 0.42) | 0.42 (0.36 / 0.45) | 0.43 (0.34 / 0.48) |
| Price to book value | 0.60 (0.50 / 0.65) | 0.60 (0.44 / 0.68) | 0.60 (0.38 / 0.72) |
How much cash does CCB really make?
The specialist’s final question is what each activity earns for the capital and operating cost it consumes. CCB’s accounts suggest an earnings recovery, but the stronger conclusion is narrower: the bank is growing, funding is becoming cheaper and interest income has improved, while margins, credit quality, dilution and the repeatability of non-interest income still determine what that growth is worth.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.28 | 1.19 |
| − Dividends, per share | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| = Kept, per share | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.89 | 0.83 |
| Diluted shares (average of the year), change | 2.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
What does an investor pay for CCB today?
At HK$9.735, CCB trades at 6.39 times earnings. That means the share price represents 6.39 years of the latest annual profit per share, not a cash payment to the investor. The division implies about HK$1.52 of annual earnings per share, but CCB may retain some profit to strengthen capital or make more loans. Its 4.7% dividend yield is the part expected to reach shareholders as cash.