Bank of China stock forecast

The weighted forecast for Bank of China is HKD6.37 in October 2027, with the bear, base and bull cases weighted 25%, 60% and 15%. It hinges on cheaper funding and manageable credit losses.

Where could Bank of China's shares be by 2029?

The forecast's central outcome is a moderate gain from today's HKD6.12, with dividends included. The weighted price is HKD6.37 in October 2027. It rises to HKD6.75 in October 2028 and HKD7.22 in October 2029. Those outcomes imply returns of 9% and 20% at the first two dates. The three-year return is 32%.

The range is much wider than the weighted path. By October 2029, the bear case gives HKD4.00, while the bull case reaches HKD10.81. The forecast assigns 25% to the bear, 60% to the base and 15% to the bull.

What has to go right for Bank of China, and what could go wrong?

The base price-to-book multiple is 0.62x in 2027. It edges up to 0.63x in 2028 and 0.64x in 2029 as margin relief offsets lingering credit concerns. The bear case falls from 0.48x to 0.42x and then 0.38x. The bull case rises from 0.72x to 0.80x and 0.88x as overseas earnings and returns on capital become more convincing. The base remains below book because ROE had declined from 2021 to 2025, while historical year-end multiples were only 0.4x to 0.5x.

The bull signal would be faster repricing of expensive term deposits in late 2026 and 2027, lifting NIM, earnings and EPS above the base case. From 2027 through 2029, stronger cross-border cash management and settlement income could then raise fees without equivalent loan growth. By 2028–2029, sustained overseas profit growth with controlled credit costs would justify higher dividends and a higher multiple.

How much cash does Bank of China really make?

Bank of China reported operating cash inflow of RMB812.030 billion in 2025. The increase in amounts due to central banks was RMB621.291 billion. That cash strengthened funding, but it also created a liability: borrowing is not earnings.