China Mobile dividend: cash coverage and yield
China Mobile pays HK$5.27 per share, up from HK$5.09. In 2025, strict free cash flow was RMB41,421 million against RMB103,410 million of dividends paid, so the year's cash did not cover the dividend.
How much does China Mobile pay per share over the years shown?
China Mobile paid RMB103,410 million in dividends in 2025. The annual declared dividend rose to HK$5.27 per share from HK$5.09, despite falling EPS. The cash dividend was about 2.5 times strict free cash flow and exceeded the company’s own measure. The difference does not prove an immediate funding crisis, but it shows that the year’s distribution relied on existing financial assets or other funding.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow per share | 1.90 | 6.06 | 4.55 | 2.91 | 3.85 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 4.75 | 4.52 | 4.25 | 4.07 | 2.81 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 1.53 | 0.30 | 1.03 | ||
| = Paid out more than FCF, per share | 2.85 | 1.19 |
Does China Mobile's dividend come from its cash?
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 41,421 | 130,645 | 97,468 | 62,172 | 78,820 |
| − Dividends paid | 103,410 | 97,458 | 91,088 | 86,837 | 57,585 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 32,966 | 6,355 | 21,163 | ||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 62,032 | 25,404 | |||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 249.7% | 74.7% | 93.5% | 140.8% | 73.1% |
What could change China Mobile's dividend?
Management plans 2026 capex of RMB136,600 million and a 75.0% dividend payout ratio. That payout is a share of profit, not a guaranteed dividend per share. The plan adds 10 million mobile customers and 18 million integrated broadband customers. It also targets more than 48,000 PFLOPS, a measure of computing speed, of added intelligent-computing capacity.
Dividends grow gradually in the base case from CNY4.7 per share to CNY5.0. The path follows the 75% payout target and a near-term EPS estimate close to 2025 diluted EPS of CNY6.30. The bear case falls from CNY4.3 to CNY3.8 because weak earnings and cash conversion reduce payout capacity. The bull case rises from CNY4.8 to CNY5.6 if computing growth converts into earnings and cash.
During 2028–2029, persistent cash generation below dividends and investment needs would weaken confidence in both the dividend and the multiple. The 2025 cash-flow shortfall shows why this test matters.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 338,931 (328,762 / 345,710) | 344,015 (318,899 / 359,538) | 349,175 (309,332 / 373,920) |
| Dividends per share | 4.70 (4.30 / 4.80) | 4.80 (4.00 / 5.20) | 5.00 (3.80 / 5.60) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 3.50 (3.00 / 4.00) | 3.50 (2.80 / 4.20) | 3.50 (2.60 / 4.40) |
| Net debt | -301,529 (-264,394 / -331,180) | -298,854 (-197,864 / -361,355) | -300,549 (-119,604 / -401,210) |
What is China Mobile's dividend yield today against its price?
Bear and base cases carry probabilities of 25% and 55%. The bull case carries 20%. At HK$79.95, the 10.9x forward P/E frames the stock as an income investment. Its 6.6% dividend yield makes cash conversion decisive.