CNOOC Limited dividend: payments and cash cover
CNOOC Limited paid HK$1.40 in 2024 and HK$1.28 in 2025. CNOOC Limited generated RMB90,972 million of real free cash flow in 2025 after capital spending, lease payments and interest.
How much does CNOOC Limited pay its shareholders?
The payout ratio is the share of profit distributed to shareholders. CNOOC raised its expected payout floor to 45% for 2025–2027, making the route from profit to cash more predictable. But this is not a guaranteed dividend yield: the company earns profit first, then declares a payment. Cash distributions fell from HK$1.40 for 2024 to HK$1.28 for 2025, despite the stronger policy.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations per share | 4.40 | 4.65 | 4.41 | 4.40 | 3.31 |
| Real free cash flow per share | 1.91 | 1.90 | 1.69 | 2.21 | 1.27 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 1.27 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1.66 | 0.46 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.81 |
Is CNOOC Limited's dividend covered by its cash?
After capital spending, lease payments and interest, the memo’s real free cash flow was RMB90,972 million. CNOOC’s own measure was RMB97,400 million because it excludes some of those payments. Both measures are useful if their definitions remain clear.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 90,972 | 90,177 | 80,311 | 103,331 | 56,721 |
| − Dividends paid | 60,357 | 60,851 | 57,981 | 77,378 | 20,473 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 661 | 0 | 623 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 30,540 | 28,647 | 22,062 | 25,330 | 36,248 |
| Paid to shareholders | 60,357 | 61,512 | 57,981 | 78,001 | 20,473 |
| Paid out, % of real free cash flow | 66.3% | 68.2% | 72.2% | 75.5% | 36.1% |
What could change CNOOC Limited's dividend?
Debt repayment reduced future financing demands. By the end of 2025, cash and short-term investments stood at RMB240,693 million, and net cash was RMB180,553 million. The company’s dividend policy set a payout floor of 45.0% for 2025–2027, and it declared a HK$0.94 interim dividend in 2026. Dividends and debt reduction clearly worked for their immediate purposes. The unresolved question is whether retaining such a large reserve will create enough future value to justify money not yet returned to shareholders.
Dividends are CNY1.60 per share in the base case for 2027 and 2028, rising to CNY1.70 in 2029. The first amount is close to 45% of the next-twelve-month EPS estimate of CNY3.62904. The bear case falls to CNY1.20, CNY0.80, and CNY0.70 as prices weaken. The bull case rises to CNY1.90, CNY2.00, and CNY2.20 because stronger earnings allow distributions above the 45% policy floor.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 328,639 (223,406 / 395,836) | 300,322 (190,526 / 376,576) | 292,058 (186,761 / 366,660) |
| Dividends per share | 1.60 (1.20 / 1.90) | 1.60 (0.80 / 2.00) | 1.70 (0.70 / 2.20) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 3.30 (2.60 / 4.00) | 3.40 (2.30 / 4.40) | 3.50 (2.10 / 4.80) |
| Net debt | -345,747 (-274,573 / -385,449) | -399,071 (-275,239 / -478,339) | -440,714 (-272,308 / -548,460) |