CNOOC Limited stock forecast
CNOOC Limited's weighted forecast puts the price at HKD33.02 in October 2027, with returns of 43% including dividends. CNOOC Limited's forecast hinges on turning production delivery, oil prices and investment into durable cash.
Where could CNOOC Limited's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to a weighted share price of HKD33.02 in October 2027, HKD32.46 in October 2028, and HKD33.32 in October 2029. Including dividends, those outcomes imply returns of 43%, 48%, and 59% from HKD24.28.
The range is much wider than the weighted path. By October 2029, the bear case reaches HKD16.39, while the bull case reaches HKD57.00. The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case, 55% to the base case, and 15% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 21.10 (-7 %) | 17.60 (-18 %) | 16.39 (-19 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 35.28 (+53 %) | 35.03 (+60 %) | 36.09 (+72 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 48.58 (+109 %) | 52.71 (+136 %) | 57.00 (+164 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 33.02 (+43 %) | 32.46 (+48 %) | 33.32 (+59 %) |
What has to go right for CNOOC Limited's forecast?
The base assumes production of 805 million BOE in 2027 and 845 million BOE in 2029. Those figures begin near management’s targets of 780–800 million BOE for 2026 and 810–830 million BOE for 2027, then extend moderate growth. The bear row is lower because it combines oil prices of US$62 and US$55 with rising cash costs. The bull row is higher because it assumes oil prices of US$98 and US$90, successful projects, and controlled costs. Offshore Chinese fields had a 9.5% natural decline rate in 2025, so delivery cannot be assumed automatically.
How much cash does CNOOC Limited really make?
After capital spending, lease payments and interest, the memo’s real free cash flow was RMB90,972 million. CNOOC’s own measure was RMB97,400 million because it excludes some of those payments. Both measures are useful if their definitions remain clear.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 209,042 | 220,891 | 209,743 | 205,574 | 147,893 |
| − Capital spending | 111,555 | 123,359 | 120,875 | 94,754 | 82,437 |
| − Lease payments | 3,381 | 3,162 | 3,460 | 2,446 | 1,903 |
| − Interest paid | 3,134 | 4,193 | 5,097 | 5,043 | 6,832 |
| − Stock pay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Real free cash flow | 90,972 | 90,177 | 80,311 | 103,331 | 56,721 |
What does an investor pay for CNOOC Limited today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how much investors pay for one dollar of annual profit. At 7.14x, buyers pay HK$7.14 for each HK$1 of recent profit; at 5.71x, they pay against expected future profit. The forward figure implies about 25% higher earnings, but that forecast depends on prices, production and costs. If oil weakens, the “E” can shrink.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 24.28 |
| Market value (calculated) | 1,154,027.282732 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 838,978.877732 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 7.14x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.2% |