Sinopec stock forecast
Sinopec's weighted forecast is HKD3.08 in October 2029. It hinges on whether higher earnings convert into free cash flow after investment and distributions.
Where could Sinopec's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is HKD3.51 in October 2027. It falls to HKD3.10 in October 2028 and HKD3.08 in October 2029. The corresponding total returns, including dividends, are negative 16% and negative 18% in the first two years. The 2029 return is negative 13%.
By October 2029, the bear case reaches HKD0.00. The bull case reaches HKD9.07, versus HKD4.53 today. The probabilities are 32% for bear, 50% for base and 18% for bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 32 % | 1.53 (-61 %) | 0.00 (-91 %) | 0.00 (-88 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 4.03 (-4 %) | 3.62 (-6 %) | 2.89 (-15 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 5.62 (+32 %) | 7.18 (+75 %) | 9.07 (+127 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 3.51 (-16 %) | 3.10 (-18 %) | 3.08 (-13 %) |
What has to go right for Sinopec, and what could go wrong?
The base row begins near CNY75,000m and rises only modestly by 2029. The bear row falls from CNY55,000m to CNY44,000m, while the bull row rises from CNY82,000m to CNY100,000m. The base is anchored by the CNY74,420m annualized first-half 2026 result and the CNY75,317m five-year average. The bear reflects weak road-fuel demand, four years of chemical losses and restrained price pass-through. The bull requires better refining margins, utilization and chemical spreads, not merely more capacity. The 2026 programme gives volume targets, but not margin assurance.
How much cash does Sinopec really make?
Capital spending was RMB133,625 million. Lease payments were RMB19,247 million and interest paid was RMB7,375 million. After those outflows, free cash flow was only RMB2,249 million. Across 2021–2025, the annual figures add to approximately negative RMB81.8 billion.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 162,496 | 149,360 | 161,475 | 116,269 | 225,174 |
| − Capital spending | 133,625 | 139,206 | 171,493 | 172,527 | 144,921 |
| − Lease payments | 19,247 | 19,654 | 18,991 | 18,672 | 19,412 |
| − Interest paid | 7,375 | 7,912 | 7,997 | 9,679 | 5,849 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,249 | -17,412 | -37,006 | -84,609 | 54,992 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,249 | -17,412 | -37,006 | -84,609 | 54,992 |
What this means. The zero for stock pay means no share-based payment was disclosed, not necessarily that employees received none, so real free cash flow may be overstated.
What does an investor pay for Sinopec today?
P/E, or price to earnings, divides the share price by annual profit. Sinopec’s trailing P/E was 13.2x, while its forward P/E was 9.4x. The lower forward figure assumes that profits will recover. That can mislead in a cyclical refinery: a business earning HK$10 in a good year and HK$2 in a bad year will look cheapest precisely when its earnings are temporarily strongest.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 4.525 |
| Market value (calculated) | 546,086.78 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 787,717.25 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 9.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.5% |
What this means. The whole business is valued higher than the stock market value because this measure also includes debt after subtracting cash.