George Weston stock forecast
The weighted forecast is C$115.93 in October 2029, including dividends. George Weston’s outcome hinges on earnings growth and execution offsetting valuation compression.
Where could George Weston's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is C$103.16 in October 2027 and C$108.22 in October 2028. It reaches C$115.93 in October 2029. Including dividends, those outcomes represent returns of -4%, +2% and +10%. The 2029 range runs from C$65.82 to C$182.33. Today’s price is C$109.15.
The bear case carries 28%. The base case carries 54%, and the bull case 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 75.91 (-29 %) | 66.92 (-36 %) | 65.82 (-36 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 106.56 (-1 %) | 113.27 (+6 %) | 119.78 (+14 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 135.34 (+25 %) | 157.32 (+47 %) | 182.33 (+71 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 103.16 (-4 %) | 108.22 (+2 %) | 115.93 (+10 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right or wrong for George Weston?
Base earnings rise from C$1,765 million in the first period to C$1,925 million in the second. They reach C$2,095 million in the third. The first estimate is anchored by the supplied NTM EPS estimate of C$4.6775 and 377.2 million diluted shares. Adjusted earnings rose from C$1,432 million in 2023 to C$1,648 million in 2025. The bear case falls from C$1,620 million to C$1,570 million before stabilizing. The bull case rises from C$1,900 million to C$2,090 million and then C$2,300 million. The base assumes retail expansion and First Capital contributions improve margins gradually. The bear reflects trade-down, weak food economics and financing pressure; the bull requires store openings, automation, pharmacy growth and stronger Choice returns. Management expects adjusted earnings to increase and Loblaw expects earnings to grow faster than sales. Five misses in eight quarters argue against treating that outlook as certain.
Trade-down limits traffic quality and margins, while new stores add sales without enough profit. First Capital debt and new units then dilute property cash flow, and higher cap rates pressure Choice. The price falls to C$75.91 by October 2027. It reaches C$65.82 by October 2029. The 28% probability reflects the earnings and valuation risks, but recurring grocery and pharmacy demand and buybacks keep the case below even odds.
How much cash does George Weston really make?
Free cash flow is the amount left after capital spending, lease payments and interest. That is a more demanding measure of what can fund dividends, repurchases or expansion. Maintenance spending protects existing earnings; expansion spending seeks new earnings, but both require cash now. A strict analysis deducts all capital spending rather than guessing which projects are optional.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,943 | 5,749 | ||
| − Capital spending | 2,379 | 2,357 | ||
| − Lease payments | 1,036 | 908 | ||
| − Interest paid | 831 | 812 | ||
| = Free cash flow | 1,697 | 1,672 | ||
| = Real free cash flow | 1,621 | 1,600 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is 5 million Canadian dollars higher because it leaves out cash payments that we count.
What does an investor pay today for George Weston?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 109.15 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 45.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 23.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.2% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ expected profits, so it is an estimate rather than a result the company has already earned.