Dollarama stock forecast
Dollarama's weighted scenario reaches C$204.98 in October 2029. The outcome hinges on Canadian comparable-store sales and whether Australia and Dollarcity turn growth into returns and cash.
Where could Dollarama's shares be by 2029?
The forecast's central outcome is modest appreciation, but the possible outcomes are widely dispersed. Weighted price is C$181.89 in October 2027, or negative 5% including dividends. It is C$191.78 in October 2028, or flat. It reaches C$204.98 in October 2029, or positive 8%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 125.67 (-34%) | 118.21 (-38%) | 113.39 (-40%) |
| Base | 55% | 188.11 (-2%) | 194.03 (+2%) | 204.92 (+8%) |
| Bull | 20% | 235.06 (+23%) | 277.54 (+45%) | 319.61 (+68%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 181.89 (-5%) | 191.78 (+0%) | 204.98 (+8%) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Dollarama?
The bear case lowers revenue and margins because Australia remains loss-making and Canadian demand could weaken. Its revenue runs from C$8,450M to C$9,350M, while margins settle at 16.0% after the first year. The bull case assumes revenue from C$8,800M to C$10,600M and margins reaching 19.0%, supported by stronger Canadian traffic and faster Australian improvement. All three cases exclude a C$10.348M non-cash option gain and a C$6.7M non-recurring tax charge.
Canadian comparable-store sales and transactions are the first test during 2027–2029. Results below the 4.0%–4.5% guidance range would move the forecast toward the bear case; stronger traffic and net openings would support the bull case.
How much cash does Dollarama really make?
Free cash flow goes further than profit by subtracting capital spending and lease payments from operating cash. Dollarama’s own measure does not subtract borrowing interest, while a stricter measure also treats stock-based pay as an economic cost to shareholders. That distinction matters because lease payments are recurring occupancy costs even though accounting presents many leases through liabilities, depreciation and interest.
The latest four-quarter period produced C$1.171 billion of Dollarama’s own free cash flow. Acquisition payments, equity contributions and other investments sit outside that measure, so it is not automatically cash available for dividends or repurchases.
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,761,156 | 1,644,139 | 1,530,954 | 869,043 | 1,159,218 |
| − Capital spending | 272,781 | 243,450 | 278,764 | 156,827 | 159,512 |
| − Lease payments | 390,333 | 317,829 | 284,836 | 253,566 | 229,582 |
| − Interest paid | 114,516 | 108,490 | 100,811 | 64,180 | 47,765 |
| = Free cash flow | 983,526 | 974,370 | 866,543 | 394,470 | 722,359 |
| = Real free cash flow | 967,503 | 958,863 | 853,441 | 380,283 | 713,742 |
What does an investor pay today for Dollarama?
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 191.93 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 38.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 37.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.9% |