Vistra earnings: guidance and what to watch
Vistra's next results are expected on November 6, 2026. Watch whether cash-generating projects arrive on schedule while operating margins remain healthy.
What has Vistra guided for 2026?
Management reaffirmed consolidated 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6,720–$7,520 million on August 7, 2026. It also set consolidated 2026 adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance at $3,760–$4,560 million. That cash pool must compete with maintenance, growth, debt, and shareholder returns.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA guidance — Vistra Corp. Consolidated | Year to Dec 2026 | 6,720 | 7,520 | Aug. 7, 2026 |
| Adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance — Vistra Corp. Consolidated | Year to Dec 2026 | 3,760 | 4,560 | Aug. 7, 2026 |
Has Vistra kept its past promises?
For the 2023–25 PSU cycle, the cash-flow measure reached $24.85 against a $17.17 target, producing 200% of target. Relative total shareholder return reached the 100th percentile. Because the award had already reached its 200% ceiling, the relative-return modifier could not increase the final payout further. The cycle therefore rewarded strong cash generation per share and stock performance, while also showing the limit built into the plan.
Vistra’s incentives are reasonably tied to shareholder outcomes, but the final test is durability: whether future pay cycles and repurchases continue to improve value per share. The evidence points to some alignment, not a blank cheque of trust.
How have Vistra's revenue and profit been trending?
Revenue fell from the year-earlier quarter, while gross margin and operating income rose. Net income and diluted earnings per share declined because a larger unrealized derivative loss outweighed stronger realized prices and capacity revenue. Three months of contribution from plants acquired from Lotus also changed the comparison.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,017 | 5,640 | 4,584 | 4,971 | 4,250 | 3,933 | 4,037 | 6,288 |
| Operating income | 553 | 1,499 | 474 | 1,037 | 515 | -120 | 599 | 2,588 |
| Net income attributable to Vistra | 305 | 1,029 | 233 | 652 | 327 | -268 | 441 | 1,888 |
| EPS, diluted | 0.76 | 2.87 | 0.54 | 1.75 | 0.81 | -0.93 | 1.14 | 5.25 |
What this means. Gross margin is not the company's final profit because it leaves out other running costs and the loss in value of equipment over time.
What should I watch in Vistra's next results?
The plan will be judged by whether cash-generating projects arrive on schedule while operating margins remain healthy.