TC Energy stock forecast
TC Energy's weighted forecast is C$92.23 by October 2027, a 9% total return. It hinges on earnings reaching the upper end of management’s 2026 expectation as major projects and Bruce Power operations support growth.
Where could TC Energy's shares be in each forecast year?
The weighted forecast is C$92.23 by October 2027, a 9% total return. It reaches C$96.29 by October 2029, a 22% total return. The bear case has 25% probability. The base case has 60%. The bull case has 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 74.23 (-11 %) | 66.31 (-16 %) | 59.56 (-20 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 95.02 (+13 %) | 96.70 (+18 %) | 100.07 (+26 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 111.08 (+31 %) | 124.64 (+50 %) | 142.38 (+75 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 92.23 (+9 %) | 93.30 (+15 %) | 96.29 (+22 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right for TC Energy, and what could go wrong?
The outcome turns on earnings reaching the upper end of management’s 2026 expectation as major projects and Bruce Power operations support growth. Bruce Power is the Ontario nuclear power station in which TC Energy owns an interest. Third-quarter results, expected in early November 2026, will test earnings and cash flow against that expectation. Bruce Power Unit 5 refurbishment and expected Great Lakes rate-settlement approval are fourth-quarter 2026 tests. Coastal GasLink Phase 2 construction and the expected Guadalajara-Manzanillo asset sale are 2027 catalysts; sale proceeds enter the case only after closing.
How much cash does TC Energy really make?
Free cash flow starts with cash from operations and subtracts capital spending. A further deduction for stock compensation treats dilution as an economic cost, even though issuing shares does not use current cash. The result is more useful for shareholders than EBITDA, but only if the spending definition is complete.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,531 | 7,026 | 6,242 | 5,666 |
| − Capital spending | 5,286 | 6,231 | 8,100 | 6,621 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,245 | 795 | -1,858 | -955 |
| − Stock pay | 7 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,238 | 789 | -1,867 | -965 |
What this means. The zeroes for lease payments and interest paid do not mean the company paid none; those payments are already included in cash from operations.
What does TC Energy's stock price say about earnings and cash?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, tells how much investors pay for each dollar of earnings attributable to common shareholders. A lower forward P/E than trailing P/E means the price assumes earnings will rise. Price to book is less decisive because accounting book value records past investment and depreciation, not the value of future pipeline receipts.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 87.35 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 24.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 22.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.5% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company's debt after subtracting its cash.