Williams stock forecast
The weighted forecast for Williams is $69.62 in October 2029, a 10% gain including dividends. Williams hinges on project delivery, cash conversion and financing that keeps leverage manageable.
Where could Williams' shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $62.14 in October 2027, a 7% loss. It is $69.62 in October 2029, a 10% gain including dividends. Bear probability is 25%. Base probability is 55%. Bull probability is 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 44.52 (-33 %) | 37.83 (-39 %) | 33.28 (-43 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 63.67 (-5 %) | 66.89 (+3 %) | 70.75 (+12 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 79.92 (+19 %) | 94.89 (+44 %) | 111.93 (+72 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 62.14 (-7 %) | 65.23 (+1 %) | 69.62 (+10 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Williams?
EBITDA is the forecast's main operating judgment. The starting estimate is $8,400 million, the midpoint of management's 2026 guidance. The base case blends annual EBITDA rising through the project cycle, producing $8,875 million at the first date and $10,075 million at the final date. The record of growth from 2021 through 2025, the exact achievement of the 2025 midpoint and contracted projects support that path.
The bear case requires project delays or overruns while growth spending remains high. Momentum and new power projects then add less cash per share, interest and refinancing concerns rise, and the multiple contracts. The price falls to $44.52 at the first date and $33.28 at the final date, including dividends. Its probability is 25% because the funding gap is material, but contracted earnings and current guidance make a sustained downturn less likely.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 8,875 (8,083 / 9,292) | 9,475 (8,198 / 10,371) | 10,075 (8,527 / 11,471) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,252 (1,252 / 1,251) | 1,253 (1,254 / 1,252) | 1,254 (1,256 / 1,253) |
| Dividends per share | 2.18 (2.10 / 2.20) | 2.29 (2.10 / 2.32) | 2.40 (2.10 / 2.44) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 13.00 (11.50 / 14.50) | 13.00 (11.00 / 15.00) | 13.00 (10.50 / 15.50) |
| Net debt | 35,690 (37,210 / 34,750) | 39,360 (42,740 / 36,760) | 42,220 (47,730 / 37,550) |
How much cash does Williams really make?
Operating cash reached $5,898 million in 2025, above net income of $2,618 million. Depreciation lowers profit without requiring a second cash payment that year, because the construction was paid for earlier. Capital spending is different: it is a current cash outflow. Williams spent $4,893 million on capital projects, leaving $1,005 million of free cash flow.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,898 | 4,974 | 5,938 | 4,889 | 3,945 |
| Of which, freed from working capital | 5 | 134 | |||
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 50 | 257 | 46 | ||
| − Capital spending | 4,893 | 2,573 | 2,516 | 2,253 | 1,239 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,005 | 2,401 | 3,422 | 2,636 | 2,706 |
| − Stock pay | 93 | 99 | 77 | 73 | 81 |
| = Real free cash flow | 912 | 2,302 | 3,345 | 2,563 | 2,625 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.4% | 22.9% | 31.4% | 24.0% | 25.5% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.6% | 21.9% | 30.7% | 23.4% | 24.7% |
What this means. The company's operating-funds measure is not the same as free cash flow because it is calculated before equipment spending, while this table subtracts that spending.
What does an investor pay for Williams today?
At $69.22, shares carry a 27.6x trailing P/E. Their 1.2% free-cash-flow yield is below the 3.0% dividend yield. Revenue growth must convert into real free cash flow as a share of revenue. The 2025 turn in that margin came as net debt rose to $29,298 million. Williams’s own free cash flow per share was $0.82 against dividends paid of $1.99 per share.