Pembina stock forecast
The weighted price reaches C$69.64 by October 2027 and C$78.69 by October 2029. The outcome hinges on fee-based growth, Cedar’s execution and financing, and marketing earnings.
Where could Pembina's shares go?
Pembina’s weighted outcome is modest in the first year but improves as Cedar and fee-based growth contribute. The starting price is C$69.63. The weighted price reaches C$69.64 by October 2027, a 4% return including dividends. It reaches C$72.11 by October 2028, a 12% return. By October 2029, it reaches C$78.69, a 26% return.
The three-year range is wide: C$35.08 in the bear case to C$122.52 in the bull case. The weighted forecast assigns 30% to the bear, 55% to the base and 15% to the bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 53.35 (-19 %) | 42.21 (-31 %) | 35.08 (-37 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 74.83 (+12 %) | 80.66 (+25 %) | 90.53 (+43 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 83.18 (+24 %) | 100.53 (+53 %) | 122.52 (+90 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 69.64 (+4 %) | 72.11 (+12 %) | 78.69 (+26 %) |
What has to go right for Pembina?
The view would move toward the bear case if marketing spreads weaken from late 2026 onward. Lower Marketing & New Ventures EBITDA would reduce both earnings and the multiple. Cedar commissioning delays or cost overruns during 2027–2029 would add debt before contracted cash flow arrives. Higher refinancing costs or partnership debt would further reduce cash available for dividends and buybacks.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,547 (4,294 / 4,738) | 4,745 (4,181 / 5,100) | 5,100 (4,075 / 5,575) |
| Shares (millions) | 582 (582 / 581) | 582 (582 / 580) | 582 (582 / 579) |
| Dividends per share | 3.00 (2.94 / 3.03) | 3.09 (2.94 / 3.15) | 3.18 (2.94 / 3.28) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 12.50 (10.50 / 13.00) | 12.75 (9.50 / 14.00) | 13.00 (9.00 / 15.00) |
| Net debt | 13,310 (14,060 / 13,260) | 13,560 (15,160 / 13,060) | 13,610 (16,260 / 12,660) |
How much cash does Pembina really make?
Free cash flow needs a careful bridge. Start with operating cash, then deduct capital spending, lease payments and the additional interest paid during construction. Most cash interest has already passed through operating cash flow, so deducting it again would count it twice. Stock-based compensation can then be treated as an economic cost to shareholders, even though its cash settlement is already reflected in the cash-flow statement.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,301 | 3,214 | 2,635 | 2,929 | 2,650 |
| − Capital spending | 784 | 955 | 606 | 605 | 658 |
| − Interest paid | 28 | 26 | 15 | 21 | 25 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,405 | 2,155 | 1,938 | 2,218 | 1,880 |
| − Stock pay | 94 | 84 | 72 | 126 | 100 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,311 | 2,071 | 1,866 | 2,092 | 1,780 |
What does an investor pay for Pembina?
The dividend still competes with maintenance, interest and construction spending. Pembina’s free-cash-flow definition subtracts dividends, capital spending and contributions to equity-accounted ventures from operating cash flow. It reported C$335 million of free cash flow for 2025, but expected a deficit in 2026 as Cedar LNG reaches its largest investment year. The valuation therefore leads naturally to the question of whether today’s price is expensive relative to Pembina’s own past.