Steel Dynamics earnings: guidance and results
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Steel Dynamics' next results are expected on January 25, 2027. Watch whether aluminum shipments become repeatable customer business.
What has Steel Dynamics guided for investment?
Management plans US$600,000 thousand of organic investment in 2026, including aluminum and biocarbon—carbon made from biological material for steelmaking. Finished automotive shipments should begin before the end of 2026. The second heat-treatment line, which heats and cools metal to give it required properties, is expected early in the first quarter of 2027.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Invest in organic projects | Year to Dec 2026 | 600,000 | 600,000 | 2026-03-27 |
| Capital investments — second half | 6 months to Dec 2026 | |||
| Capital investments — next year | Year to Dec 2027 |
What this means. The blank capital investment rows mean the figures could not be verified, not that the company plans to spend nothing.
Did Steel Dynamics keep its past promises?
EPS promises appear cautious, with six beats and seven of eight quarters meeting or exceeding guidance, although these forecasts arrive late in each quarter and offer limited evidence of longer-term forecasting skill. No cuts or withdrawals of the published numerical quarterly EPS ranges were found; the Q2 2026 relocation impairment was already included in its initial guidance. The sole miss, Q3 2026, coincided with aluminum yield losses caused by rolling-coolant composition, which management said had been corrected, but the release does not quantify how much of the EPS shortfall that issue explains.
| Metric | Record, last 8 quarters | Typical gap |
|---|---|---|
| GAAP diluted EPS, USD per share | 7 of 8 inside or above the initial range: 6 above, 1 inside, 1 below. No subsequent numerical EPS guidance updates before quarter-end were found. | Median result was approximately 3.3% above the initial range's upper endpoint, calculated across all eight quarters, including the inside result and miss. |
What is Steel Dynamics' revenue and profit trend?
Revenue rose 34.8% from a year earlier, while operating income increased 98.2%. Net income rose 87.3% and diluted EPS rose 92.0%; fewer diluted shares helped EPS grow faster than net income.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,509,419 | 6,091,557 | 5,204,858 | 4,414,048 | 4,828,215 | 4,565,123 | 4,369,195 | 3,872,138 |
| Operating income | 1,006,367 | 700,479 | 538,004 | 310,230 | 507,757 | 382,855 | 275,144 | 237,502 |
| Net income | 756,000 | 534,087 | 403,436 | 266,033 | 403,685 | 298,726 | 217,151 | 207,293 |
| EPS, diluted | 5.26 | 3.69 | 2.78 | 1.82 | 2.74 | 2.01 | 1.44 | 1.36 |
What this means. These figures cover three months at a time, so the descriptions that say “year” can be misleading.
What should I watch in Steel Dynamics' next results?
The dated operating milestones are finished automotive shipments before the end of 2026 and the second heat-treatment line becoming operational early in the first quarter of 2027. Qualification means a customer has approved a particular product and production route for its intended use. Repeat orders would show that approval has become dependable business.