Nucor stock forecast
Nucor's weighted forecast points to $278.02 in October 2027 and $357.36 in October 2029. It hinges on steel earnings recovery, West Virginia execution and cash generation that supports buybacks.
Where could Nucor's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to moderate gains in the central path, with substantial downside if the steel recovery fails. The probability-weighted price is $278.02 in October 2027, $307.99 in October 2028 and $357.36 in October 2029. Including dividends, those returns are 9%, 22% and 42% from today’s $256.29.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 29 % | 136.29 (-46 %) | 99.47 (-59 %) | 135.31 (-45 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 301.12 (+18 %) | 338.04 (+34 %) | 369.58 (+47 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 431.13 (+69 %) | 544.01 (+114 %) | 662.84 (+161 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 278.02 (+9 %) | 307.99 (+22 %) | 357.36 (+42 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate likely outcome.
What has to go right or wrong for Nucor?
The first target implies a 9% return including dividends; the last implies 42%. Bear probability is 29%. Base probability is 52%. Bull probability is 19%. Imports, construction demand, customer qualification—buyer approval that the mill's steel meets requirements—and profitable new capacity decide the outcome. Nucor's next results release is scheduled for October 26, 2026; operating cash flow, remaining capital spending and performance against Q3 guidance are the near-term tests. West Virginia commercial shipments are expected in early 2027, with utilization and product offerings building through 2027 and 2028. Remember: buybacks reduced average diluted shares by 3.1% in 2025, but share-count reduction cannot replace improving per-ton economics.
The base path uses $7,300M in the first forecast year and $8,200M in the second. It reaches $8,500M in the final year. The bear path falls to $4,200M in the middle year before recovering to $5,000M. The bull path reaches $8,800M first and $11,000M last. The recent operating recovery supports the base case: first-half operating income implies an annualized EBITDA pace near $6,954M, although a $130M procurement refund will not recur. The West Virginia mill is expected to begin commercial shipments in early 2027 and build utilization through 2028.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 7,300 (5,000 / 8,800) | 8,200 (4,200 / 10,000) | 8,500 (5,000 / 11,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 223 (226 / 221) | 220 (226 / 214) | 216 (226 / 208) |
| Dividends per share | 2.24 (2.24 / 2.24) | 2.28 (2.24 / 2.32) | 2.32 (2.24 / 2.40) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 9.50 (7.00 / 11.00) | 9.00 (6.50 / 11.50) | 9.00 (7.00 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 2,200 (4,130 / 1,520) | -400 (4,790 / -1,690) | -3,330 (4,420 / -5,870) |
How much cash does Nucor really make?
Cash from operations reflects customer receipts, operating payments and changes in receivables, inventory and payables. Free cash flow subtracts capital spending. Stock compensation is not a current-period cash payment, but subtracting it gives a stricter measure because shareholders ultimately bear dilution.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,234 | 3,979 | 7,112 | 10,072 | 6,230.776 |
| Of which, freed from working capital | 156 | 858 | 693 | ||
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 636 | 1,862.89 | |||
| − Capital spending | 3,422 | 3,173 | 2,214 | 1,948 | 1,621.989 |
| = Free cash flow | -188 | 806 | 4,898 | 8,124 | 4,608.787 |
| − Stock pay | 133 | 132 | 130 | 137 | 135.775 |
| = Real free cash flow | -321 | 674 | 4,768 | 7,987 | 4,473.012 |
What this means. The company's 2021 number is $0.213 million higher only because it rounded its figures, not because it counted extra cash.
What does an investor pay for Nucor today?
The P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, compares the share price with the earnings produced for each share. The forward P/E is lower than the trailing P/E, which means the valuation assumes earnings will recover. Price-to-book compares the share price with the accounting value of shareholders’ equity. Enterprise value measures the operating business after adding debt and subtracting cash.