Standard Chartered stock forecast
At October 2029, Standard Chartered's weighted share price is 2,707.67 GBp, a 34% total return including dividends. Standard Chartered's outcome turns on wealth inflows and cross-border activity becoming recurring income while costs grow more slowly.
Where could Standard Chartered's shares be by 2029?
At October 2027, the weighted price is 2,254.69 GBp. That implies a 7% total return including dividends. At October 2029, it is 2,707.67 GBp. That implies a 34% total return including dividends. Bear, base and bull probabilities are 30%, 50% and 20%.
The forecast puts the weighted share price at 2,254.69 GBp in October 2027, a 7% total return including dividends. It rises to 2,469.81 GBp in October 2028, a 20% return. By October 2029, it reaches 2,707.67 GBp, a 34% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 1766.91 (-16 %) | 1640.60 (-20 %) | 1525.83 (-23 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 2358.19 (+11 %) | 2656.26 (+28 %) | 2973.02 (+47 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 2727.60 (+29 %) | 3247.47 (+56 %) | 3817.04 (+87 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 2254.69 (+7 %) | 2469.81 (+20 %) | 2707.67 (+34 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Standard Chartered?
The bear case requires lower rates and deposit competition to weaken net interest income, while regional exposures and weaker borrowers increase impairments. Higher costs or legal charges then slow the shift toward wealth and cross-border services. Buybacks are reduced to protect CET1, but weaker earnings and a lower multiple still reduce per-share value.
The bull case requires affluent inflows to become retained relationships and recurring fees. Cross-border and network income must remain durable, while cost savings arrive without weakening investment or controls. Contained credit losses would preserve capital for buybacks and support a higher multiple.
How much cash does Standard Chartered really make and give back?
Net interest income fell from $6,366 million to $5,955 million, while other income rose from $13,177 million to $14,987 million. Other income includes fees, trading and other activities, so it is not all recurring fee revenue.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest income | 5,955 | 6,366 | 7,769 | 7,593 | 6,798 |
| Other income (calculated) | 14,987 | 13,177 | 10,250 | 8,725 | 7,903 |
| Revenue | 20,942 | 19,543 | 18,019 | 16,318 | 14,701 |
| Profit after tax | 5,097 | 4,042 | 3,462 | 2,902 | 2,313 |
| Dividend per share | 61.00 | 37.00 | 27.00 | 18.00 | 12.00 |
What this means. The dividend per share includes a final payment recommended after the year ended, so it was not all paid during that year.
What does an investor pay for Standard Chartered today?
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 2,165.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 47,048 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.0x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.4x |
| Price to tangible book (calculated) | 1.6x |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings figure uses analysts’ expected profit, so it can change if their forecasts are wrong.