Southern dividend
Southern's dividend starts from the $2.96 annualized run rate and reaches $3.44 in the base path. Southern's free cash flow did not cover the dividend, so debt and new shares supplied the difference while share buybacks remained absent.
How much does Southern pay in dividends?
The base dividend path begins from the $2.96 annualized run rate. It reaches $3.24 in the first window and $3.34 in the second. It ends at $3.44, preserving the history of regular increases while recognizing capital demands. The bear case reaches $3.32 before ending at $3.40. The bull case reaches $3.26 first, then $3.40 and $3.56 as earnings and cash conversion improve. Negative free cash flow of $2.935 billion in 2025 makes faster growth difficult to assume.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 3.92 | 3.99 | 3.62 | 3.26 | 2.24 |
| Real free cash flow per share | -2.77 | 0.64 | -1.53 | -1.62 | -1.46 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.72 | 2.68 | 2.76 | 2.69 | 2.60 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
What this means. In 2025, the company paid its owners $5.55 per share more than the cash its business generated after equipment spending, so it had to use other money to cover the difference.
Is Southern's dividend covered by its cash?
Southern’s investment program usually required more cash than its operations produced after capital spending. Free cash flow—the cash left after operating needs and capital spending—did not cover the dividend, so debt and new shares supplied the difference while share buybacks remained absent.
“Real free cash flow” goes one step further by subtracting stock compensation, treating shares given to employees as an economic cost. The remaining cash must fund construction, dividends and debt obligations. Negative free cash flow can support attractive regulated growth, but only if completed assets enter rate base and begin producing customer cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | -2,935 | 833 | -1,542 | -1,621 | -1,417 |
| − Dividends paid | 3,015 | 2,954 | 3,035 | 2,907 | 2,777 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 6,150 | 2,306 | 4,811 | 4,787 | 4,545 |
| + Debt issued | 12,670 | 6,859 | 10,295 | 7,782 | 9,117 |
| − Debt repaid | 5,878 | 3,890 | 5,924 | 3,645 | 4,352 |
What this means. The company paid owners more than its free cash flow, so it had to use savings or borrow money to fund those payments.
What could change Southern's dividend?
Management guides to 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.50–$4.60 and 8–9% annual adjusted EPS growth through 2028. Its $81 billion 2026–2030 capital plan targets 9% regulated rate-base growth, 10% electric-sales growth and 17% FFO to debt by 2029.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 5,681 (5,475 / 5,782) | 6,260 (5,891 / 6,438) | 6,843 (6,320 / 7,109) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,171 (1,174 / 1,171) | 1,175 (1,182 / 1,174) | 1,179 (1,191 / 1,177) |
| Dividends per share | 3.24 (3.24 / 3.26) | 3.34 (3.32 / 3.40) | 3.44 (3.40 / 3.56) |
| Price to earnings | 18.00 (16.50 / 20.00) | 18.00 (15.50 / 20.50) | 18.00 (15.00 / 21.00) |