Smucker stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Smucker's weighted forecast is $130.21 in October 2027, with 30% probability for the bear case, 50% for the base case and 20% for the bull case. It hinges on Uncrustables repeat buying.
Where could Smucker's shares be by 2029?
The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case and 50% to the base case. The bull case receives 20%. Three-year share-price outcomes range from $70.06 to $271.28.
The forecast points to a modest first-year gain, followed by stronger returns if earnings recover and the valuation expands. The weighted share price is $130.21 in October 2027, a 4% total return including dividends. It reaches $146.11 in October 2028, a 19% return. By October 2029, it reaches $163.43, a 36% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 94.54 (-24 %) | 81.47 (-30 %) | 70.06 (-36 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 133.35 (+6 %) | 155.19 (+26 %) | 176.31 (+46 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 175.87 (+39 %) | 220.39 (+77 %) | 271.28 (+119 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 130.21 (+4 %) | 146.11 (+19 %) | 163.43 (+36 %) |
What has to go right for Smucker, and what could go wrong?
The bear earnings path falls from $920 million to $874 million and then $837 million. Coffee volume losses, weak Hostess demand, capacity costs and interest pressure keep margins declining. The bull path rises from $1,175 million to $1,310 million and then $1,450 million because Uncrustables, coffee volume, Hostess sales and factory utilization improve together. Uncrustables grew 12% in the latest quarter, but Sweet Baked Snacks sales fell 7%, so the evidence is mixed.
How much cash does Smucker really make?
Free cash flow means cash from operations after capital spending. A Hostess write-down lowers profit but does not require another payment, so it can coexist with strong operating cash flow. That cash can fund dividends, debt repayment, and investment.
| Apr 2026 | |
|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,473.6 |
| − Capital spending | 317.4 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,156.2 |
| − Stock pay | 23.6 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,132.6 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches ours, but our real free cash flow is lower because shares given to employees reduce shareholders' ownership even though no cash was paid.
What does an investor pay for Smucker today?
Free cash flow offers a more practical test. It is the cash left after necessary investment, and it can support dividends, debt reduction, or growth. The dividend is one use of that cash, so its yield cannot simply be added to the free cash flow yield. Smucker’s planned $500 million of FY2027 debt repayment makes the balance-sheet question central.
| Today (Oct 24, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 129.98 |
| Market value (calculated) | 13,884.9 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 20,589.1 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 60.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.2% |
What this means. The last-12-month and next-12-month price-to-earnings numbers differ sharply because one uses past profit and the other uses analysts’ expected future profit.