Mondelēz stock forecast
The weighted forecast points to $78.31 by October 2029 if demand, margins and cash recover. It hinges on units and cash, not price increases alone.
Where could Mondelēz's shares be by October 2029?
At $63.81 today, the probability-weighted price reaches $70.35 in October 2027, including dividends, for a 14% total return. It reaches $75.44 in October 2028, a 25% return, and $78.31 in October 2029, a 33% return.
The October 2029 range is $44.08 to $130.37. The bear case has a 30% probability, the base case 52%, and the bull case 18%, so gradual recovery is the most likely path.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 44.84 (-26 %) | 44.57 (-24 %) | 44.08 (-22 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 77.16 (+24 %) | 81.12 (+34 %) | 80.03 (+36 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 93.21 (+49 %) | 110.47 (+80 %) | 130.37 (+115 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 70.35 (+14 %) | 75.44 (+25 %) | 78.31 (+33 %) |
What has to go right for Mondelēz, and what could go wrong?
The bear case requires chocolate volume to stay weak while consumers trade down and cocoa relief arrives slowly. Price-led revenue growth fades, margins remain below the five-year adjusted average, and ERP and working-capital demands restrict cash. The multiple falls as leverage and cash conversion disappoint. This produces $44.84 in 2027 and $44.08 in 2029, with a 30% probability.
The bull case requires cocoa relief to reach production, chocolate buyers to return, and Oreo and other innovation to generate repeat purchases. Productivity then expands margins, cash funds larger buybacks, and investors reward the recovery with a higher multiple. Price reaches $93.21 in 2027 and $130.37 in 2029, but the probability is only 18% because chocolate volume remains negative and cash needs compete with repurchases.
How much cash does Mondelēz really make?
Cash from operations was $4,514 million. After capital spending of $1,279 million, free cash flow was $3,235 million. That is cash after actual investment, although Mondelēz does not disclose a complete split between maintenance spending and growth projects.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,514 | 4,910 | 4,714 | 3,908 | 4,141 |
| − Capital spending | 1,279 | 1,387 | 1,112 | 906 | 965 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,235 | 3,523 | 3,602 | 3,002 | 3,176 |
| − Stock pay | 114 | 147 | 146 | 120 | 121 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,121 | 3,376 | 3,456 | 2,882 | 3,055 |
What this means. There is no gap between the company's own free cash flow and ours, but our real free cash flow is lower because we subtract shares given to employees as pay.
What does Mondelēz's price imply about earnings and cash?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 63.814 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 23.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 19.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.3% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company’s debt after subtracting its cash, showing what buying the whole business would cost.