Boeing stock forecast
Boeing’s weighted forecast is $124.89 in October 2027 and reaches $238.29 in October 2029. It hinges on turning stable production into accepted deliveries and recurring cash generation before dilution arrives.
Where could Boeing’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is $124.89 in October 2027, a -33% return. It reaches $238.29 in October 2029, a +28% return. The bear case has 33% probability; the base case has 49%. The bull case has 18%. The bear path reaches $0.00 in October 2027 and $332.87 in October 2029.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 33 % | 0.00 (-100 %) | 171.45 (-8 %) | 332.87 (+78 %) |
| Base | 49 % | 184.70 (-1 %) | 183.41 (-2 %) | 186.09 (-0 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 191.01 (+2 %) | 198.03 (+6 %) | 206.98 (+11 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 124.89 (-33 %) | 182.09 (-2 %) | 238.29 (+28 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average, so the possible total loss in the bear case pulls the October 2027 estimate far below the other cases.
What has to go right for Boeing, and what could go wrong?
The base case assumes revenue approaches $125B and the final margin reaches 6%. The bull case requires $140B and an 8% margin. The bear case assumes a 1% loss before only a slow recovery. H1 2026 produced $604M of operating income on $46,777M of revenue, while 2025 adjusted operating income was $3,236M. Management’s targets of 52 737s per month by 2027 and $1B–$3B of 2026 free cash flow support recovery, but neither target is profit guidance.
How much cash does Boeing really make?
In 2025, operating cash did not cover capital spending, so free cash flow remained negative. Subtracting stock pay produces a stricter measure because shares given to employees still impose an economic cost on existing shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,065 | -12,080 | 5,960 | 3,512 | -3,416 |
| − Capital spending | 2,951 | 2,318 | 1,527 | 1,222 | 980 |
| = Free cash flow | -1,886 | -14,398 | 4,433 | 2,290 | -4,396 |
| − Stock pay | 426 | 407 | 690 | 725 | 833 |
| = Real free cash flow | -2,312 | -14,805 | 3,743 | 1,565 | -5,229 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -2.6% | -22.3% | 4.8% | 2.3% | -8.4% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is slightly higher because it leaves out 9 million dollars in 2025 and 88 million dollars in 2024 that we count as cash spending.
How does Boeing’s price compare with earnings and cash?
The P/E ratio compares a share price with annual earnings per share. Boeing’s trailing and forward P/E ratios are both high, but the forward measure is a forecast, not profit already earned. The problem is that Boeing’s 2025 core earnings included a $12.47-per-share gain from selling Digital Aviation Solutions. Removing an exceptional gain can clarify repeatable profit, but it cannot remove the real costs of delays, rework and troubled programs.
Free cash flow is operating cash left after capital spending. Boeing’s current free-cash-flow yields are negative, and its common dividend yield is zero, so shareholders receive no cash income while the company consumes cash. Management maintained a 2026 free-cash-flow outlook of $1–3 billion, while describing $10 billion annually as attainable without giving a firm date.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 186.49 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 80.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 51.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.5% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.0% |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yield means the company spent more cash than it generated over the latest year.