Republic Services dividend
Republic Services paid $2.41 per share in dividends in 2025. Free cash flow is measured after property and equipment spending, then compared with dividends, buybacks, and the cash left over.
How much does Republic Services pay per share?
The base dividend rises to $2.725 per share in October 2027. It reaches $2.905 in 2028 and $3.085 in 2029. The assumed quarterly increase is close to the latest raise, while annual dividends rose from $1.77 in 2021 to $2.41 in 2025. The bear pauses first and reaches $2.78. The bull assumes larger raises and reaches $3.13.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.36 | 2.18 | 2.01 | 1.87 | 1.73 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 2.79 | 1.53 | 0.83 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 2.56 | 2.90 | 3.43 | 2.96 | 1.98 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is higher because it adds its chosen cash adjustments, while our real free cash flow per share also subtracts shares given to employees as pay.
Is Republic Services' dividend covered by its cash?
The basic free-cash-flow test subtracts property and equipment spending from operating cash. That spending includes maintenance and growth projects, such as landfill cells and recycling facilities, so the statement does not reveal perfectly which dollars are optional. Subtracting stock pay gives a stricter owner-focused measure because stock compensation can dilute shareholders even when it uses no current cash.
Adjusted free cash flow is Republic’s customized version of that calculation. It may add back selected restructuring payments or recoveries, but it still excludes debt service and dividends. It is useful for comparison, not the same as cash freely available to owners.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 2,409 | 2,081 | 1,987 | 1,736 | 1,470.4 |
| − Dividends paid | 738 | 687 | 638 | 593 | 552.6 |
| − Share buybacks | 870 | 482 | 262 | 203 | 252.2 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 800 | 912 | 1,087 | 939 | 632.4 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 66.7% | 56.2% | 45.3% | 45.9% | 54.7% |
What could change Republic Services' dividend?
The bear view would gain force in 2027–2028 if construction and industrial weakness kept volume and revenue growth falling. Through 2029, customer churn after price increases, weaker Environmental Solutions results and higher debt would reduce EBITDA, buybacks and the valuation multiple.
The base view would strengthen if pricing and acquired businesses delivered modest growth, volumes improved gradually and route productivity protected margins. Dividends and buybacks would continue, but capital spending and acquisitions would still absorb cash.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5,745 (5,390 / 5,904) | 6,038 (5,469 / 6,475) | 6,345 (5,619 / 7,075) |
| Dividends per share | 2.73 (2.68 / 2.73) | 2.90 (2.70 / 2.93) | 3.08 (2.78 / 3.13) |
| Net debt | 14,069 (14,700 / 13,700) | 14,369 (15,350 / 13,150) | 14,369 (15,900 / 12,500) |