Reckitt stock forecast
Reckitt's weighted price is 4,596.32p in October 2027, with bear, base and bull probabilities of 26%, 54% and 20%. It hinges on operating recovery, cash generation, legal clarity and the valuation multiple.
Where could Reckitt's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is 4,596.32p in October 2027, a 10% total loss. It reaches 4,909.47p in October 2028, approximately flat. By October 2029, it reaches 5,224.55p, a 10% total return. The 2029 bear-to-bull range is 3,036.27p to 7,953.60p. Today’s price is 5,364.00p. The bear case has a 26% probability. The base case has 54%. The bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 26 % | 3231.92 (-36 %) | 3143.90 (-35 %) | 3036.27 (-33 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 4858.20 (-5 %) | 5071.66 (+3 %) | 5267.41 (+12 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 5662.96 (+10 %) | 6766.78 (+35 %) | 7953.60 (+62 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 4596.32 (-10 %) | 4909.47 (-0 %) | 5224.55 (+10 %) |
What has to go right for Reckitt, and what could go wrong?
Base earnings are £2,095m in 2027. They rise to £2,250m in 2028 and £2,409m in 2029. The base assumes revenue rises from £12,700m toward £13,650m, while margins move from 25.2% toward 26.3%. This is above the H1 2026 adjusted operating margin of 23.6%, but remains anchored by the 2026 margin guidance of 24.9%–25.6%. The bear reaches only £1,914m by 2029; the bull reaches £2,682m. Q2 Core growth reached 4.2%, and Mead Johnson reached 7.2% LFL growth, supporting the upside. Europe’s 3.0% decline and only 45% of leading category-market units holding or gaining share support the downside.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,095 (1,840 / 2,211) | 2,250 (1,881 / 2,452) | 2,409 (1,914 / 2,682) |
| Shares (millions) | 625 (626 / 625) | 621 (628 / 616) | 617 (630 / 607) |
| Dividends per share | 2.27 (1.80 / 2.32) | 2.38 (1.80 / 2.48) | 2.50 (1.80 / 2.65) |
| Price to earnings | 14.50 (11.00 / 16.00) | 14.00 (10.50 / 17.00) | 13.50 (10.00 / 18.00) |
How much cash does Reckitt really make?
Free cash flow fell to £1,709 million from £2,232 million, and conversion of adjusted net income fell from 91% to 71%. The cash-flow bridge also deducted £199 million relating to adjusting items. That is why restructuring can be excluded from adjusted earnings while still reducing cash.
Share-based payment is added back because it is not an equivalent cash payment that year, but employees still receive value and shareholders may bear dilution or buyback costs. Cash conversion must therefore be read over several periods, alongside investment and the share count.
What does an investor pay for Reckitt today?
Book value is also a weak guide because internally built brands are not fully recorded as assets, while acquired brands and goodwill are. Cash flow and returns on invested capital say more about whether Reckitt’s brands earn their keep. Its £1,709 million of 2025 free cash flow gives about a 5.0% yield, but includes the former business and transformation costs.
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 5,364.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 33,986.91 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.9x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 3.4x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
What this means. The dividend yield uses only regular dividends, so it leaves out the one-off 235 pence special dividend and does not show all the cash shareholders recently received.