Haleon stock forecast
Haleon's weighted price is 418.15p in October 2029, a 22% total return. Haleon's outcome hinges on earnings recovery, savings and cash generation holding up as volume and mix improve.
Where could Haleon's shares be by October 2029?
Haleon’s probability-weighted outcome is modest upside over three years, but the range remains wide. The weighted price is 367.66p in October 2027, a 4% total return including dividends. It reaches 388.44p in October 2028, a 12% return, and 418.15p in October 2029, a 22% return. By the final date, the bear-to-bull range is 257.16p to 605.35p against today’s 362.10p.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 297.28 (-16 %) | 277.28 (-19 %) | 257.16 (-23 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 378.39 (+7 %) | 401.65 (+15 %) | 439.87 (+28 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 446.41 (+25 %) | 522.16 (+49 %) | 605.35 (+74 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 367.66 (+4 %) | 388.44 (+12 %) | 418.15 (+22 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average expected share value after giving more influence to the cases considered more likely.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Haleon?
The bear case would gain weight during 2027–2029 if repeated weak respiratory seasons, trading down or share losses keep growth below plan. It would also gain weight in 2027–2028 if savings underdeliver, change costs rise or refinancing weakens cash conversion.
The base case would strengthen when FY2026 results confirm guidance and later results show volume and mix improving toward the medium-term target. The bull case would gain weight through 2027–2029 if access packs create repeat purchases, factory simplification exceeds offsets and stronger free cash flow accelerates debt reduction and buybacks.
How much cash does Haleon really make?
Investment and financing then take their share. Capital spending was £413m. After capital spending, lease payments and interest, a stricter free-cash-flow measure was £1,804m. Deducting £86m of share-based pay gives £1,718m, an economic allowance for the ownership granted to employees even though it is not a current cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,634 | 2,301 | 2,100 | 2,063 | 1,356 |
| − Capital spending | 413 | 318 | 336 | 328 | 298 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,804 | 1,563 | 1,305 | 1,527 | 1,005 |
| − Stock pay | 86 | 102 | 76 | 15 | 0 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,718 | 1,461 | 1,229 | 1,512 | 1,005 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it includes money from selling assets and interest received, and does not subtract lease payments or the value of shares given to employees as pay.
What does an investor pay for Haleon today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares the share price with the company’s earnings. A trailing P/E uses profit already reported, while a forward P/E uses an estimate of future profit. The forward measure can therefore look cheaper because earnings are expected to rise, because the measures use different definitions, or both. In H1 2026, adjusted operating profit rose 8.2% at constant exchange rates, while reported operating profit fell 2.6%. Adjusted profit excludes costs such as restructuring, but those costs still consume cash.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 362.10 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 20.01x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.78x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.4% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings figure uses analysts' guesses about future profit, so it is not a promise.