Colgate-Palmolive stock forecast
Colgate-Palmolive's weighted price is $84.47 in October 2029, a −3% return. Colgate-Palmolive's forecast hinges on restoring volume and share while Hill’s branded growth and productivity protect cash generation.
Where could Colgate-Palmolive's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $82.20 in October 2027, a −10% return, and $84.47 in October 2029, a −3% return. The forecast assigns 30% probability to the bear case, 50% to base and 20% to bull. The next dated test is the October 30, 2026 results release: North American volume and market share will show whether demand is stabilizing. Productivity savings must support growth without weakening brand investment. Hill’s branded demand, fresh-food adoption, buyback pace and the next dividend decision will shape the remaining paths.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 59.63 (-34%) | 56.43 (-36%) | 54.15 (-36%) |
| Base | 50% | 87.24 (-5%) | 88.58 (-1%) | 89.52 (+2%) |
| Bull | 20% | 103.48 (+12%) | 112.98 (+25%) | 117.32 (+32%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 82.20 (-10%) | 83.81 (-6%) | 84.47 (-3%) |
What has to go right or wrong for Colgate-Palmolive?
The base assumes gradual volume improvement, pricing near the middle of guidance and productivity savings partly offset by brand investment. Management expects organic sales growth of one to four percent and mid-single-digit Base Business EPS growth. The bear case reflects North American volume down 3.9% and the prior guidance miss, when actual organic growth was 1.4%. The bull case requires broader oral-care gains, stronger Hill’s demand and savings that outlast inflation.
How much cash does Colgate-Palmolive really make?
Capital spending cannot be treated as wholly avoidable, and stock compensation is not economically free simply because it is non-cash. Deducting stock pay produces a stricter analytical measure of free cash flow.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,198 | 4,107 | 3,745 | 2,556 | 3,325 |
| − Capital spending | 564 | 561 | 705 | 696 | 567 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,634 | 3,546 | 3,040 | 1,860 | 2,758 |
| − Stock pay | 155 | 135 | 122 | 125 | 135 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,479 | 3,411 | 2,918 | 1,735 | 2,623 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 17.1% | 17.0% | 15.0% | 9.7% | 15.1% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches the report's count, but real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares gives away part of the company even though no cash leaves.
What does an investor pay for Colgate-Palmolive today?
At $94.11 a share, the company’s shares are worth $75,021.93 million, while enterprise value is $81,425.93 million. Enterprise value estimates the cost of owning the operating business, including lenders’ claims. Like buying a house with a mortgage attached, the buyer receives the asset but also takes on its financing obligations. The $6,404 million gap is net debt, so future cash must serve lenders before shareholders.
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, measures what investors pay for each dollar of profit. Colgate’s trailing P/E is 37.3x, compared with 23.0x for the next twelve months. The gap partly reflects the $794 million after-tax impairment of its skin-health business in 2025. The charge was non-cash, but it still revealed that earlier expectations for Filorga had been too optimistic, especially in China.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 94.11 |
| Market value (calculated) | 75,021.93 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 81,425.93 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 37.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 23.0x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.6% |
What this means. The enterprise value is higher than the market value because it includes the company’s debt after subtracting its cash and short-term investments.