Regions stock forecast
The weighted case points to $27.68 in October 2027, while the base case carries a 56% probability. It hinges on stable deposits.
Where could Regions shares be in each forecast year?
The probability-weighted share price is $27.68 in the first year, a 5% total return including dividends. It rises to $29.70 in the second year, a 17% total return, and $32.32 in the third, a 31% total return. By the final date, the bear-to-bull range is $20.18 to $44.36, compared with today’s $27.45.
The base case has a 56% probability. The bear and bull cases receive 25% and 19%, respectively.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 21.86 (-16 %) | 20.44 (-17 %) | 20.18 (-14 %) |
| Base | 56 % | 28.89 (+10 %) | 31.18 (+23 %) | 33.66 (+37 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 31.74 (+20 %) | 37.53 (+46 %) | 44.36 (+76 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 27.68 (+5 %) | 29.70 (+17 %) | 32.32 (+31 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case more or less influence based on its probability.
What could make Regions’ base, bear, and bull cases happen?
The base case reaches $21,379 million by the final date through moderate earnings growth and continued, but not excessive, payouts. The bear case reaches only $19,779 million because it adds stress losses to ordinary credit costs and slows capital retention. The bull case reaches $21,979 million because disciplined deposits, asset repricing, and fee growth lift earnings faster. Management’s payout target is 40%–50%, and its CET1 operating range is 9.3%–9.8%, supporting the assumption that capital returns continue but remain constrained by regulation and growth.
How much does Regions earn and give back per share?
Kept, per share — Without $208 million of securities-sale losses, earnings kept after dividends and buybacks were $0.75 per share instead of $0.58.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 2.30 | 1.93 | 2.11 | 2.28 | 2.49 |
| − Dividends, per share | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.88 | 0.73 | 0.64 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 1.19 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| = Kept, per share | 0.09 | 0.58 | 0.96 | 1.30 | 1.36 |
| Book value per share | 20.36 | 17.77 | 17.07 | 15.29 | 17.69 |
What this means. “Dividends, per share” is the company’s total dividends divided by its average share count, so it may differ from the dividend officially declared for each share.
What does an investor pay for Regions today?
Regions’ valuation says investors expect solid but not spectacular earnings from the bank. A P/E tells how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of annual earnings. If Regions earned $1 per share, a 10x P/E would value that share at about $10; a trailing P/E uses the past year, while a forward P/E uses an estimate for the next year. Because the two multiples in the table are close, the price assumes fairly stable earnings rather than a sudden profit surge.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 27.45 |
| Market value (calculated) | 23,332.5 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 10.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.4x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.4x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.4% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit, so it can change if their predictions are wrong.