RELX stock forecast
In October 2029, the weighted price reaches 2801.56p, a 10% gain including dividends. It hinges on earnings rebuilding equity while buybacks moderate after the £2,250m 2026 programme.
Where could RELX’s shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is 1996.29p in October 2027, a 25% loss including dividends. It rises to 2363.09p in October 2028, still a 9% loss. By October 2029, it reaches 2801.56p, a 10% gain including dividends.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 971.43 (-62 %) | 470.02 (-78 %) | 63.51 (-90 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 2088.79 (-22 %) | 2455.79 (-6 %) | 2794.25 (+10 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 3022.99 (+12 %) | 4474.52 (+68 %) | 6244.22 (+135 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1996.29 (-25 %) | 2363.09 (-9 %) | 2801.56 (+10 %) |
What has to go right for RELX, and what could go wrong?
Net asset value is the first driver. The base starts at £1,696m in October 2027 and rises through the forecast. The bear row contracts toward £82m, while the bull row reaches £3,608m. The starting point reflects reported equity of £1,238m at June 2026 after heavy capital returns. In 2025, shareholder payments were £2,681m against free cash flow of £2,271m. The base therefore assumes earnings rebuild equity while buybacks moderate after the £2,250m 2026 programme. The bear keeps payouts high; the bull assumes stronger earnings and lower future buybacks.
How much cash does RELX really make?
Free cash flow starts with cash from operations and subtracts capital spending and lease payments. In 2025, that produced £2,271m before share-based pay, above net income. The comparison is reassuring because cash did not depend mainly on unpaid customer invoices.
After £63m of share-based pay, real free cash flow was lower. That deduction recognises the ownership cost of employee shares. The central question is whether today’s software and content investment maintains existing products or funds additional growth.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,836 | 2,608 | 2,457 | 2,401 | 2,016 |
| − Capital spending | 525 | 484 | 477 | 436 | 337 |
| − Lease payments | 40 | 63 | 72 | 79 | 93 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,271 | 2,061 | 1,908 | 1,886 | 1,586 |
| − Stock pay | 63 | 66 | 56 | 46 | 45 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,208 | 1,995 | 1,852 | 1,840 | 1,541 |
What does an investor pay for RELX today?
Cash flow and financing add the next layer. Enterprise value broadly combines the value of the shares with debt and cash, while net debt means borrowings minus cash. At 30 June 2026, RELX reported £8,733m of net debt and leverage of 2.3x.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 2760.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 48,087.29 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 56,654.29 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.6% |