Informa stock forecast
Informa’s weighted scenario reaches 541.36 GBp in October 2027, with a 32% bear case, a 51% base case and a 17% bull case. Informa’s forecast hinges on event recovery, TechTarget improvement, and Clarion delivery.
Where could Informa’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is 541.36 GBp in October 2027. That represents a 36% loss including dividends.
The base case carries the greatest probability at 51%. The bear case has 32%, while the bull case has 17%. The narrow gap between base and bear reflects the acquisition, event timing and technology risks.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 32% | 299.17 (-64%) | 298.84 (-61%) | 297.64 (-59%) |
| Base | 51% | 583.71 (-31%) | 659.79 (-20%) | 789.18 (-2%) |
| Bull | 17% | 870.22 (+1%) | 1172.69 (+38%) | 1495.16 (+78%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 541.36 (-36%) | 631.48 (-23%) | 751.90 (-7%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate forecast.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Informa?
The bear case uses revenue of £4,550m initially and £4,800m finally, with margins rising only from 7.5% to 8.5%. Earnings therefore reach just £408m by the last date. Rescheduled Middle East events, a 1.3% TechTarget decline and financing costs support this restraint.
The bull case begins with £4,950m of revenue and reaches £5,950m. Margins rise from 12.5% to 14.0%, lifting earnings from £619m to £833m. That requires stronger event demand, above-plan Clarion synergies and improved digital renewals. The forecast excludes the exceptional £484.2m goodwill impairment but retains recurring amortisation, interest and tax.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 499 (341 / 619) | 556 (372 / 736) | 615 (408 / 833) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,368 (1,368 / 1,352) | 1,348 (1,369 / 1,318) | 1,325 (1,371 / 1,281) |
| Dividends per share | 0.23 (0.22 / 0.24) | 0.25 (0.22 / 0.26) | 0.27 (0.22 / 0.28) |
| Price to earnings | 16.00 (12.00 / 19.00) | 16.00 (11.00 / 21.00) | 17.00 (10.00 / 23.00) |
What this means. The price-to-earnings number shows how many pounds investors pay for each pound the company earns.
How much cash does Informa really make?
Free cash flow goes further by deducting capital spending, lease payments and interest. “Real free cash flow” also deducts share-based pay. Shares issued to employees may not require cash on the day, but they still impose an economic cost on existing shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 876.3 | 801.6 | 620.2 | 397.2 | 385.9 |
| − Capital spending | 30.3 | 30.6 | 27.5 | 14.5 | 6.9 |
| − Lease payments | 46.1 | 26.7 | 33.8 | 32.1 | 35.6 |
| − Interest paid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow | 799.9 | 744.3 | 558.9 | 350.6 | 343.4 |
| = Real free cash flow | 757.4 | 722.1 | 538.1 | 333.1 | 328.4 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is higher because it counts software and product development as spending but adds back interest received and acquisition costs, and it does not subtract lease payments.