IQVIA stock forecast
The weighted IQVIA forecast is $253.24 in October 2027. It hinges on IQVIA turning its clinical backlog into profitable cash while keeping debt under control.
Where could IQVIA's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $253.24 in October 2027, a 5% loss including dividends. It is $263.98 in October 2028, a 1% loss. By October 2029, it reaches $274.76, a 3% gain. The base case carries 53% probability. The bear case carries 27%, and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 201.45 (-25 %) | 183.49 (-31 %) | 167.83 (-37 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 254.88 (-5 %) | 265.02 (-1 %) | 272.63 (+2 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 318.81 (+19 %) | 369.90 (+39 %) | 424.74 (+59 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 253.24 (-5 %) | 263.98 (-1 %) | 274.76 (+3 %) |
What has to go right for IQVIA, and what could go wrong?
Earnings rise in the base row, decline after the first forecast year in the bear row and accelerate in the bull row. The base story assumes revenue continues near the 2026 plan, with acquisition contribution and modest margin recovery. The 2026 plan implies 6.5% reported growth, while June net bookings were $3.15B and book-to-bill was 1.22.
How much cash does IQVIA really make?
Stock compensation needs a further adjustment. IQVIA disclosed US$247 million of stock-based compensation in 2025. Subtracting it leaves analytical “real free cash flow” of US$1,804 million. That was down from US$1,908 million in 2024. The subtraction treats shares issued to employees as an ownership cost, even though the company does not pay that amount in cash immediately.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,654 | 2,716 | 2,149 | 2,260 | 2,942 |
| − Capital spending | 603 | 602 | 649 | 674 | 640 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,051 | 2,114 | 1,500 | 1,586 | 2,302 |
| − Stock pay | 247 | 206 | 217 | 194 | 170 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,804 | 1,908 | 1,283 | 1,392 | 2,132 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 11.1% | 12.4% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 15.4% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches our count, but our real free cash flow is lower because we subtract shares given to employees as pay.
What does an investor pay for IQVIA today?
The P/E ratio changes with the definition of earnings. The trailing P/E is 33.1x, while the next-twelve-month P/E is 18.6x. GAAP earnings follow standard accounting rules; adjusted earnings remove selected items, including amortization of acquired relationships and technology. In Q2 2026, GAAP diluted EPS was $1.53, compared with adjusted EPS of $3.15. A lower forward multiple may therefore reflect a change in the earnings measure, not a sudden bargain.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 266.90 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 33.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.1% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings number for the next 12 months uses analysts' guesses about future profit, not profit the company has already earned.