Experian stock forecast
Experian’s weighted case reaches 3,300.14p by October 2029 for a 22% total return. It hinges on continued organic growth, margin gains and cash-funded investment and repurchases.
Where could Experian’s shares be by 2029?
Experian’s weighted case reaches 3,300.14p by October 2029 for a 22% total return, hinging on continued organic growth, margin gains and cash-funded investment and repurchases. For FY27, management guides to 6–8% organic revenue growth and 50 basis points of Benchmark EBIT margin expansion. It expects double-digit Benchmark EPS growth, capital expenditure of 8% of revenue and operating cash flow conversion of at least 90%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 2091.86 (-25 %) | 1887.92 (-30 %) | 1833.93 (-30 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 3048.24 (+9 %) | 3180.28 (+16 %) | 3296.09 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 3759.74 (+34 %) | 4430.66 (+60 %) | 5144.07 (+88 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 2951.44 (+5 %) | 3107.27 (+13 %) | 3300.14 (+22 %) |
What this means. The Weighted row is the average value after giving each case its stated probability, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right or wrong for Experian?
The bear case combines weaker US mortgage and consumer-credit activity with a prolonged Consumer Services shortfall. Pricing no longer offsets flat volumes, marketplace referrals fail to replace expired contracts, and higher debt and dispute risk compress the multiple. The price falls to 2091.86 GBp by October 2027 and 1833.93 GBp by October 2029.
The bull case requires credit activity to recover, the bank partnership to ramp and Ascend, identity, health and automotive products to become profitable recurring revenue. Stronger cash generation then funds both investment and larger buybacks, while evidence of durable growth lifts the multiple. The price reaches 3759.74 GBp by October 2027 and 5144.07 GBp by October 2029.
How much cash does Experian really make?
Management’s free-cash-flow measure is higher than the stricter calculation because it excludes or adds back selected acquisition and exceptional cash movements. Those payments still happened. Stock compensation is another economic cost: it may not consume cash when recorded, but it transfers value to employees through shares and can dilute shareholders.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,239 | 2,005 | 1,747 | 1,717 | 1,796 |
| − Capital spending | 726 | 651 | 640 | 627 | 508 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,465 | 1,313 | 1,059 | 1,033 | 1,231 |
| − Stock pay | 138 | 127 | 132 | 129 | 149 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,327 | 1,186 | 927 | 904 | 1,082 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 15.7% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 13.7% | 17.2% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out some cash costs, such as buying other businesses and unusual payments.
What does an investor pay for Experian today?
Experian’s price assumes that dependable growth will turn a modest current cash return into a larger one over time.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 2855.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 25,198.11 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 29,048.86 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 23.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |
What this means. The enterprise value uses the company's debt and cash from March 31, so it may not show what the business owes and has today.