Qualcomm stock forecast
The weighted October 2027 price is $142.82, a 16% loss including dividends. The thesis is simple: Qualcomm’s upside depends on turning its pipeline into repeated, profitable shipments without weakening the cash engine that already works.
Where could Qualcomm's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to a weak first year, followed by recovery. The weighted October 2027 price is $142.82, a 16% loss including dividends. It reaches $174.23 in October 2028, a 4% gain. By October 2029, it reaches $224.14, a 35% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 82.21 (-51%) | 72.91 (-54%) | 92.48 (-41%) |
| Base | 50% | 151.94 (-11%) | 189.05 (+13%) | 236.55 (+42%) |
| Bull | 20% | 210.95 (+23%) | 289.15 (+70%) | 390.63 (+131%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 142.82 (-16%) | 174.23 (+4%) | 224.14 (+35%) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Qualcomm?
Operating profit is the main swing factor. The base case rises from $11,700 million in October 2027 to $13,230 million in October 2028. It reaches $15,120 million in October 2029. The base path uses revenue of $45,000 million at a 26% margin, then $49,000 million at 27%, and finally $54,000 million at 28%. Those margins move toward fiscal 2025’s level as data-center, automotive and IoT growth absorbs early costs.
The bear case remains below the five-year average of $11,173 million because handset pressure and weak data-center conversion persist. Its revenue rises from $40,000 million to $44,000 million, while margins stay near 20–21%. The bull case reaches $18,600 million on $62,000 million of revenue and a 30% margin, requiring repeat data-center shipments and stronger premium handset content.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 11,700 (8,400 / 13,160) | 13,230 (8,200 / 15,660) | 15,120 (9,240 / 18,600) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,039 (1,056 / 1,031) | 1,028 (1,058 / 1,013) | 1,017 (1,059 / 995) |
| Dividends per share | 3.80 (3.68 / 3.92) | 3.92 (3.68 / 4.20) | 4.04 (3.68 / 4.48) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 14.00 (11.00 / 17.00) | 15.00 (10.00 / 19.00) | 16.00 (11.00 / 21.00) |
| Net debt | 5,892 (5,568 / 6,271) | 4,127 (4,836 / 4,714) | 1,373 (3,741 / 1,921) |
How much cash does Qualcomm really make?
Stock compensation makes conventional free cash flow look better than the ownership economics. Qualcomm recorded $2,783 million of stock compensation in FY2025. Subtracting that analytical cost leaves $10,037 million of real free cash flow. No additional cash payment occurs, but existing shareholders own a smaller share of the company.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 14,012 | 12,202 | 11,299 | 9,096 | 10,536 |
| − Capital spending | 1,192 | 1,041 | 1,450 | 2,262 | 1,888 |
| = Free cash flow | 12,820 | 11,161 | 9,849 | 6,834 | 8,648 |
| − Stock pay | 2,783 | 2,648 | 2,484 | 2,031 | 1,663 |
| = Real free cash flow | 10,037 | 8,513 | 7,365 | 4,803 | 6,985 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 22.7% | 21.8% | 20.6% | 10.9% | 20.8% |
What does an investor pay for Qualcomm today?
The P/E ratio says how much investors pay for each dollar of profit. Qualcomm trades at 20.2 times trailing earnings and 17.2 times expected earnings over the next twelve months. The trailing figure is distorted by a $5.7 billion tax benefit: an accounting reversal of an earlier allowance, not money earned from customers.