NVIDIA stock forecast
NVIDIA's weighted forecast reaches $395.86 by October 2029, with bear, base and bull probabilities of 23%, 57% and 20%. The outcome turns on customer returns, utilization, margins and supply-constrained growth.
Where could NVIDIA's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $284.31 in October 2027, a 32% return, and $395.86 in October 2029, an 84% return. Bear, base and bull probabilities are 23%, 57% and 20%. The October 2029 cases range from $62.69 to $850.89.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 23 % | 117.99 (-45 %) | 92.04 (-57 %) | 62.69 (-70 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 291.37 (+35 %) | 341.84 (+59 %) | 370.64 (+73 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 455.47 (+111 %) | 683.37 (+217 %) | 850.89 (+295 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 284.31 (+32 %) | 352.69 (+64 %) | 395.86 (+84 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right or wrong for NVIDIA?
The outcome turns on customer returns, utilization, margins and supply-constrained growth. Custom-chip substitution or weaker customer economics would push the view toward bear. Vera Rubin began production shipments in Q3. The November 17 results call will test its ramp, customer installations and memory costs. Buybacks can lift per-share results; diluted shares fell 1.2% in fiscal 2026, while stock-based pay adds shares.
The bear case starts at $400,000 million of revenue. Growth then falls to 30%, 5% and negative 10%, with margins declining from 48% to 45% and then 42%. The bull case starts at $430,000 million, grows by 80%, 45% and 30%, and holds margins near recent levels at 56% and then 57%. These differences reflect NVIDIA’s history of growth slowing from 114.2% to 65.5%, alongside the risk that customer payback, custom chips or supply constraints weaken demand. The latest quarter delivered $96,221 million of revenue and $59,688 million of net income. The forecast excludes $23,707 million of equity-security gains and a $711 million tax release because they are not operating earnings.
How much cash does NVIDIA make after stock pay?
Free cash flow subtracts capital spending from cash generated by operations. “Real free cash flow” subtracts stock pay as well, treating employee equity awards as an economic cost to shareholders. The difference matters because stock compensation transfers value to employees through additional shares.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 102,718 | 64,089 | 28,090 | 5,641 | 9,108 |
| − Capital spending | 6,042 | 3,236 | 1,069 | 1,833 | 976 |
| = Free cash flow | 96,676 | 60,853 | 27,021 | 3,808 | 8,132 |
| − Stock pay | 6,386 | 4,737 | 3,549 | 2,709 | 2,004 |
| = Real free cash flow | 90,290 | 56,116 | 23,472 | 1,099 | 6,128 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 41.8% | 43.0% | 38.5% | 4.1% | 22.8% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is slightly lower because it subtracts 101 million dollars of cash items that our count leaves in.
What does an investor pay for NVIDIA today?
Next-twelve-month P/E is 13.7x, while free cash flow yield is 1.9%. Revenue growth eased from 125.9% in fiscal 2024 to 65.5% in fiscal 2026. Operating margin was 60.4% in fiscal 2026, and real free cash flow, computed from the company’s cash from operations minus capital spending and stock pay, was 41.8% of revenue.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 216.62 |
| Market value (calculated) | 5,220,542 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.7% |
What this means. NVIDIA’s whole-business value is lower than its stock-market value because it has more cash and short-term investments than debt.