Qnity stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Qnity's weighted price is $126.98 in October 2029, a +6% return, across 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull scenarios. It hinges on customer ramps, cash conversion and debt reduction.
Where could Qnity's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $110.59 in October 2027, an −8% return. It is $126.98 in October 2029, a +6% return. The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull.
At the first date, the weighted price is $110.59, an 8% loss including dividends. At the second date, it is $119.23, a 1% loss. At the last date, it reaches $126.98, a 6% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 72.34 (-40 %) | 57.33 (-52 %) | 57.71 (-52 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 115.36 (-4 %) | 124.68 (+4 %) | 126.74 (+6 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 145.28 (+21 %) | 181.63 (+51 %) | 214.23 (+79 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 110.59 (-8 %) | 119.23 (-1 %) | 126.98 (+6 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it can be below the base case because the bear case is more likely than the bull case.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Qnity?
The bear case falls to $1,050M in the middle period because utilization and inventory correction reduce sales to $5,000M and margin to 21.0%. That reflects the 15.1% revenue decline in 2023. The bull case reaches $1,730M, supported by sales of $6,900M and a 25.0% margin; it requires AI, packaging and thermal demand, facility qualifications and savings to arrive on schedule. Q2 volume growth was 18% in Semiconductor Technologies and 28% in Interconnect Solutions.
How much cash does Qnity really make?
That is what made 2025 unusually strong. Cash from operations reached $1,273 million. Of this, $214 million came from working-capital release, far more than the $14 million recorded in 2024. Capital spending was $285 million, leaving free cash flow of $988 million. After deducting $20 million of stock compensation, real free cash flow was $968 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,273 | 1,061 | 882 | 1,153 |
| − Capital spending | 285 | 200 | 231 | 202 |
| = Free cash flow | 988 | 861 | 651 | 951 |
| − Stock pay | 20 | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| = Real free cash flow | 968 | 848 | 638 | 939 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 20.4% | 19.6% | 15.8% | 19.7% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it adds back 15 million dollars of transaction costs that we count as cash the company spent.
What does an investor pay for Qnity today?
The reported free cash flow yield is 3.9%, with a real free cash flow yield of 3.8%; the adjustment behind the latter still needs definition. The small dividend supplies little of the return, so the important question is whether normalized cash remains after interest, necessary investment, and separation costs.
| Today (Oct 21, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 120.26 |
| Market value (calculated) | 25,159.42 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 28,297.42 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 21.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.8% |
What this means. The whole business is worth more than its stock-market value because it includes the company’s debt, after subtracting its cash.