Broadcom stock forecast
Broadcom's weighted scenario reaches $548.37 in October 2029. It hinges on AI shipments becoming collected cash and software customers renewing.
Where could Broadcom's shares be by October 2029?
Broadcom’s probability-weighted price is $554.13 in October 2027, implying a 55% return with dividends. It rises to $580.56 in October 2028, implying a 63% return. By October 2029, it is $548.37, still a 55% return.
The final-date range is wide: $281.84 in the bear case to $644.42 in the bull case. The comparison begins from today’s price of $360.14.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 378.90 (+6 %) | 312.58 (-12 %) | 281.84 (-19 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 599.71 (+67 %) | 662.63 (+86 %) | 634.59 (+79 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 647.83 (+81 %) | 689.84 (+93 %) | 644.42 (+82 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 554.13 (+55 %) | 580.56 (+63 %) | 548.37 (+55 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Broadcom?
The bear case falls to 28.0% growth in FY2027 and then 10.0% and 5.0%, as deployments slip, customers redesign programmes and VMware renewals weaken. The bull case uses 63.0% growth in FY2027, 85.0% in FY2028 and 45.0% in FY2029, assuming repeat accelerator generations and networking attach exceed the stated plan.
Cash conversion remains below the company’s earlier peak. Base after-stock-pay free-cash-flow margin is 30% in FY2026 and declines to 27% by FY2029. The FY2025 actual was 30.3%, while stock pay was $7,568 million. Bear margins fall from 25% to 19%; bull margins rise from 31% to 34%. The gap reflects inventory, supplier commitments and compensation: Q4 non-GAAP operating-margin guidance is 66.0%, but stock pay is excluded from that measure. Purchase commitments were $126,821 million, with potential rack lease exposure of approximately $29 billion.
| FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 65.7 % (60.0 % / 68.0 %) | 58.0 % (28.0 % / 63.0 %) | 72.0 % (10.0 % / 85.0 %) | 30.0 % (5.0 % / 45.0 %) |
| Measure (EBITDA / cash flow) | 31,758 (25,555 / 33,272) | 48,505 (28,785 / 55,983) | 80,552 (28,785 / 106,806) | 100,978 (28,713 / 159,561) |
| Net debt | 39,604 (44,306 / 40,044) | 10,059 (28,752 / 6,913) | -49,811 (14,054 / -72,356) | -127,531 (2,276 / -199,508) |
| Buybacks | 10,000 (8,450 / 12,000) | 5,000 (0.00 / 8,000) | 5,000 (0.00 / 10,000) | 6,000 (2,000 / 12,000) |
| Dividend per share | 2.60 (2.60 / 2.60) | 2.86 (2.73 / 2.91) | 3.15 (2.87 / 3.26) | 3.46 (3.01 / 3.65) |
How much cash does Broadcom really make?
Operating cash reached $27,537 million in FY2025. Capital spending was $623 million, leaving free cash flow of $26,914 million, matching Broadcom’s own measure. The low capital spending reflects its largely fabless model: outside manufacturers make the chips, while Broadcom funds design, manufacturing purchases and software development.
| Year to Nov 2025 | Year to Nov 2024 | Year to Oct 2023 | Year to Oct 2022 | Year to Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 27,537 | 19,962 | 18,085 | 16,736 | 13,764 |
| Capital spending | 623 | 548 | 452 | 424 | 443 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 26,914 | 19,414 | 17,633 | 16,312 | 13,321 |
| Stock-based pay | 7,568 | 5,670 | 2,171 | 1,533 | 1,704 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 19,346 | 13,744 | 15,462 | 14,779 | 11,617 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 3.99 | 2.88 | 3.62 | 3.49 | 2.71 |