Hershey stock forecast
Hershey's probability-weighted price is $170.84 in October 2027. It hinges on cocoa relief, stable takeaway, successful automation and profitable organic snack growth.
Where could Hershey's shares be by 2029?
In October 2027, the probability-weighted price is $170.84, a 6% return including dividends. In October 2028, it reaches $195.46, a 24% return. By October 2029, it reaches $220.77, a 43% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 121.31 (-24 %) | 118.25 (-22 %) | 114.69 (-21 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 174.49 (+8 %) | 199.88 (+27 %) | 224.80 (+46 %) |
| Bull | 21 % | 220.42 (+35 %) | 276.01 (+72 %) | 336.69 (+113 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 170.84 (+6 %) | 195.46 (+24 %) | 220.77 (+43 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving more influence to the cases considered more likely.
What has to go right for Hershey's forecast, and what could go wrong?
The bear case gives earnings of $1,525 million, $1,587 million and $1,651 million across the three dates. It assumes expensive cocoa coverage, continued price-driven volume weakness and limited productivity gains. The bull case reaches $1,991 million, $2,261 million and $2,520 million because cocoa relief arrives faster, pricing holds and Dot’s capacity and snack brands improve margins. Q2 pricing was about 12% favorable while volume/mix fell about 8%, so the forecast does not assume that price increases are costless.
The base story is a delayed but broad recovery. Guidance supports the earnings bridge, lower cocoa costs gradually improve margins, and measured buybacks preserve cash for debt and investment. Base begins at $174.49 and ends at $224.80. Its probability is 54% because earnings, shares and dividends specialists each identify recovery as the most likely path, while volume weakness reduces confidence.
How much cash does Hershey really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash less capital spending. Hershey generated US$1,822,745 thousand on that simple basis in 2025, down from US$1,925,654 thousand in 2024. Deducting stock compensation produces analytical “real free cash flow” of US$1,757,285 thousand, because shares given to employees still transfer value even without an immediate cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 1,822,745 | 1,925,654 | 1,552,081 | 1,808,356 | 1,587,007 |
| − Stock pay | 65,460 | 44,414 | 81,021 | 65,991 | 66,711 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,757,285 | 1,881,240 | 1,471,060 | 1,742,365 | 1,520,296 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 15.6% | 17.2% | 13.9% | 17.4% | 17.7% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 15.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 16.9% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs because it adds back some cash items in 2025 and subtracts others in earlier years, while our count includes those cash movements.
What does an investor pay for Hershey today?
The P/E ratio shows how much investors pay for one dollar of annual earnings per share. Hershey’s trailing P/E of 22.8 implies earnings of about $7.32 per share, while its forward P/E of 16.9 implies about $9.88. The lower forward multiple does not mean the stock became cheaper; it means investors expect profit to recover.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 167.00 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.4% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.5% |
What this means. The price to book number uses company net assets and shares from June 28 but stock value and shares from the newer July 27 count, so its dates do not match exactly.