Moody’s stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Moody’s weighted forecast puts the share price at $601.91 in October 2029, with 55% probability assigned to the base case. It hinges on Analytics growth, restructuring savings, and disciplined buybacks supporting earnings through the Ratings cycle.
Where could Moody’s shares be by 2029?
The forecast puts the weighted share price at $509.30 (+7%) in October 2027 and $601.91 (+28%) in October 2029. It assigns 25% probability to the bear case, 55% to the base case, and 20% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 422.31 (-11%) | 435.23 (-8%) | 446.89 (-4%) |
| Base | 55% | 516.55 (+8%) | 553.06 (+17%) | 594.25 (+27%) |
| Bull | 20% | 598.11 (+25%) | 697.82 (+47%) | 816.75 (+73%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 509.30 (+7%) | 552.56 (+17%) | 601.91 (+28%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right or wrong for Moody’s?
Operating profit is the main earnings engine. The base case rises from $3,784.5 million to $4,338.75 million as debt markets normalize, Analytics renewals continue and restructuring savings improve margins. The bear case assumes weaker issuance and margins of 39.5% to 40.5%; the bull assumes broader issuance, stronger Analytics growth and margins of 46% to 48%. The starting anchor is the latest quarter’s $906 million operating income and 44.8% margin, alongside 2026 GAAP margin guidance of 44% to 45%.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 3,784 (3,219 / 4,094) | 4,048 (3,300 / 4,559) | 4,339 (3,442 / 5,088) |
| Shares (millions) | 169 (170 / 168) | 164 (167 / 164) | 160 (163 / 161) |
| Dividends per share | 4.39 (4.12 / 4.42) | 4.84 (4.24 / 5.00) | 5.24 (4.36 / 5.52) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 24.45 (23.93 / 25.97) | 23.81 (23.58 / 26.53) | 23.32 (22.73 / 27.12) |
| Net debt | 5,337 (5,456 / 5,958) | 5,791 (5,305 / 6,578) | 6,040 (5,361 / 6,817) |
How much cash does Moody’s really make?
Stock compensation is an economic cost even though it is added back in the cash-flow statement. Stock pay was $232 million in 2025; deducting it leaves analytical “real free cash flow” of $2,343 million. That is not a second cash payment, but it recognizes the ownership granted to employees.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,901 | 2,838 | 2,151 | 1,474 | 2,005 |
| − Capital spending | 326 | 317 | 271 | 283 | 139 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,575 | 2,521 | 1,880 | 1,191 | 1,866 |
| − Stock pay | 232 | 220 | 193 | 169 | 175 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,343 | 2,301 | 1,687 | 1,022 | 1,691 |
What this means. Stock pay is subtracted even though it uses no cash because giving employees shares reduces the owners’ share of the company.
What does an investor pay for Moody’s today?
The P/E ratio compares the share price with earnings per share. Moody’s trailing P/E is 29.3x, while its forward P/E is 25.6x. A lower share price can still produce a higher P/E if earnings fall faster. That happened when Moody’s Investors Service, its ratings business, suffered a 29% revenue decline in 2022 as debt issuance weakened. Normalized earnings therefore ask what Moody’s might earn across both busy and quiet borrowing years.
Free cash flow is cash from operations minus capital additions. In 2025, that calculation produced $2.575 billion. The 3.1% free-cash-flow yield is the cash generation implied by today’s equity value, while the 0.9% dividend yield shows that most of the case rests on growth, acquisitions, debt repayment or buybacks rather than dividends.