L3Harris stock forecast
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted scenario is $257.72 in October 2027, rising to $336.34 in October 2029. It hinges on whether L3Harris can convert funded demand into cash without losing fixed-price margin.
Where could L3Harris's shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted share price is $257.72 in October 2027, for a 6% total return from today’s $248.51 after including dividends. It rises to $295.33 in October 2028 and $336.34 in October 2029, equal to cumulative returns of 23% and 42%.
The 2029 outcomes range from $210.45 in the bear case to $491.36 in the bull case. The base case has the highest probability at 52%, against 28% for bear and 20% for bull, because orders and guidance support growth but funding and fixed-price risks remain material.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 189.11 (-22 %) | 196.04 (-17 %) | 210.45 (-9 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 262.29 (+8 %) | 305.04 (+27 %) | 344.51 (+45 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 341.86 (+40 %) | 409.06 (+69 %) | 491.36 (+104 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 257.72 (+6 %) | 295.33 (+23 %) | 336.34 (+42 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right or wrong for L3Harris?
The bull case requires Camden to reach capacity, missile contracts to finalize profitably, and satellite and counter-drone awards to become repeat production. Stronger cash flow then supports faster debt reduction and repurchases. The result is $341.86 initially and $491.36 by October 2029, with a 20% probability. Several conditions must succeed together, so the bull remains less likely than moderate execution.
How much cash does L3Harris really make?
Operating cash was $3,106 million in 2025. After $424 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $2,682 million. Removing $113 million of stock compensation produces an analytical “real free cash flow” measure, because stock awards dilute owners even without an immediate cash payment.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,106 | 2,559 | 2,096 | 2,158 | 2,687 |
| − Capital spending | 424 | 408 | 449 | 252 | 342 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,682 | 2,151 | 1,647 | 1,906 | 2,345 |
| − Stock pay | 113 | 97 | 89 | 109 | 129 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,569 | 2,054 | 1,558 | 1,797 | 2,216 |
What this means. The company’s own free cash flow is higher because it adds back cash from selling property, and in 2022 also adds back cash costs from mergers, acquisitions, and sales.
What does an investor pay for L3Harris today?
At $248.51, the stock trades at 25.1x trailing earnings. Forward earnings imply 18.3x. Free-cash-flow yield is 5.8%; stock compensation lowers the real figure to 5.6%. Revenue growth slowed to 2.5% in 2025 while operating margin rose to 9.7%. Real free cash flow, computed as cash from operations minus capital spending and stock compensation, reached 11.7% of revenue, up from 8.0% in 2023. Net debt fell to $10,047 million in 2025 from $12,565 million in 2023. Diluted EPS recovered to $8.53 in 2025 but remains below $9.09 in 2021. Real free cash flow per share reached $13.64 in 2025 from $10.77 in 2024. Dividends and buybacks require support from real free cash flow rather than asset sales or borrowing.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 248.51 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 25.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.6% |
What this means. The values are called today’s values, but they use the share price from October 16 and company figures from July, so they are not all measured on the same date.