KKR stock forecast
KKR’s weighted path reaches $110.43 in October 2029, or +31% including dividends. It hinges on KKR’s fee growth, successful realizations and replacement USI earnings.
Where could KKR’s shares go in each scenario?
KKR’s weighted path reaches $110.43 in October 2029, or +31% including dividends, if fee growth, successful realizations and replacement USI earnings arrive. Management guides to Insurance Operating Earnings of $250 million per quarter in the second half of 2026 and Strategic Holdings Operating Earnings of at least $350 million for 2026. The regular annualized common dividend is guided at $0.78 per share. KKR expects $3,300 million of after-tax proceeds and $2,000 million of Adjusted Net Income from the USI sale in 2026.
The weighted forecast is $86.59 in October 2027, or +1%. Probabilities are 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull. At October 2029, outcomes range from $41.45 in the bear case (-50%) to $217.44 in the bull case (+155%); the base case is $109.01 (+29%).
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 49.08 (-42 %) | 41.60 (-50 %) | 41.45 (-50 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 90.04 (+5 %) | 101.89 (+20 %) | 109.01 (+29 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 134.24 (+56 %) | 176.49 (+106 %) | 217.44 (+155 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 86.59 (+1 %) | 98.72 (+16 %) | 110.43 (+31 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for KKR?
Operating profit is the main earnings bridge. The base case uses $5,500 million at the first date and $6,100 million at the middle date. It reaches $6,700 million at the final date. The bear path starts at $4,700 million and ends at $5,400 million; the bull path starts at $6,200 million and ends at $8,200 million. The base begins above 2025 Adjusted Operating Income because FPAUM grew to $604,144 million and insurance operating earnings reached $1,109.395 million by 2025. Fundraising and deployment support the bull case, while the USI sale and difficult exits support the bear case.
The USI closing expected in 2027 is the central hinge: proceeds support the base balance sheet, but failure to replace its future earnings would push the forecast toward bear. Conversely, strong exits, durable fundraising, rising insurance earnings and efficient Gen II expansion would move the assumptions toward bull.
How much cash does KKR really make?
The apparent calculation is simple: cash from operations less capital spending produces free cash flow, and subtracting stock compensation produces a still lower figure. But KKR consolidates investment funds whose purchases and sales enter operating cash flow. That money may belong economically to fund investors, not to KKR’s shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 477,760 | 6,649,878 | -1,493,812 | -5,279,259 | -7,176,708 |
| − Capital spending | 160,765 | 141,536 | 108,393 | 85,056 | 102,049 |
| = Free cash flow | 316,995 | 6,508,342 | -1,602,205 | -5,364,315 | -7,278,757 |
| − Stock pay | 722,109 | 746,443 | 618,469 | 730,236 | 529,816 |
| = Real free cash flow | -405,114 | 5,761,899 | -2,220,674 | -6,094,551 | -7,808,573 |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but it gives employees part of the company, so we subtract its value to show what is truly left for shareholders.
What does an investor pay for KKR today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 86.44 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 27.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.5x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -0.5% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings number is based on analysts' expected profit, not profit the company has already earned.