Apollo stock forecast
The weighted forecast is $144.37 in October 2029, a +37% return. It hinges on fee growth and Athene’s spread earnings.
Where could Apollo’s shares go in each forecast year?
The weighted forecast is $115.91 in October 2027, a +7% return. It is $144.37 in October 2029, a +37% return. The bear case has a 27% probability. The base case has a 53% probability. The bull case has a 20% probability.
The forecast puts Apollo’s probability-weighted share price at $115.91 in October 2027, $129.19 in October 2028 and $144.37 in October 2029. Against today’s $110.78, those outcomes represent total returns of 7%, 21% and 37%. The three-year range is wide: $60.28 in the bear case to $248.01 in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27% | 83.33 (-23%) | 72.67 (-30%) | 60.28 (-39%) |
| Base | 53% | 121.07 (+11%) | 134.37 (+26%) | 148.10 (+40%) |
| Bull | 20% | 146.18 (+34%) | 191.76 (+78%) | 248.01 (+131%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 115.91 (+7%) | 129.19 (+21%) | 144.37 (+37%) |
What has to go right or wrong for Apollo?
The bear case falls to $18,000 million as weaker spreads, credit losses and investment marks overwhelm earnings. The bull case reaches $35,000 million because strong fee conversion and benign marks allow more earnings to remain in equity. Apollo’s targets of at least 20% FRE growth and 10% SRE growth support the base and bull cases, but do not remove Athene’s sensitivity to markets.
How much cash does Apollo really make?
Stock compensation deserves separate attention. It may not require current cash, but it transfers shares to employees or requires Apollo to spend cash offsetting dilution. Subtracting it produces a rougher shareholder-oriented figure, though still not a clean fee-business free cash flow number.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,246 | 3,253 | 6,322 | 3,789 | 1,064 |
| − Stock pay | 789 | 721 | 1,026 | 540 | 1,181 |
What this means. Apollo's cash from operations includes its Athene insurance business, so it does not show only the cash generated by Apollo's main operations.
What does an investor pay for Apollo today?
A trailing P/E uses the last twelve months of earnings; a forward P/E uses an estimate for the next twelve months. Apollo’s wide gap between them says that investors expect earnings to recover sharply. Reported GAAP earnings, the standard accounting measure, have been unusually uneven: Apollo reported a $1.93 billion loss attributable to common stockholders in the first quarter of 2026, followed by $1.336 billion of GAAP net income in the second quarter. Investment marks, insurance accounting and a $1.7 billion tax expense helped produce that swing. The forward multiple is therefore a recovery bet, not proof that recovery will occur.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 110.78 |
| Market value (calculated) | 65,420.371 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 66,628.371 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 40.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.8x |
What this means. The business value leaves out Athene's cash and debt, but the sales figure includes Athene, so this comparison does not cover exactly the same business.