Ares stock forecast
Ares’ weighted price is $123.76 in October 2029, with bear and base probabilities of 29% and 52%, and bull at 19%. Ares’ outlook hinges on converting fee-paying assets into earnings while credit stress and dilution remain contained.
Where could Ares’ shares be in the forecast years?
The probability-weighted outcome is modest initially but improves over three years. The weighted price is $109.04 in October 2027, excluding dividends. That is a 1% return from today's $113.07. It reaches $114.89 in October 2028, a 12% return, and $123.76 in October 2029, a 26% return.
The October 2029 range is wide, from $58.44 in the bear case to $225.87 in the bull case. The bear probability is 29%, while the base case receives 52%. The bull probability is 19%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 29 % | 76.37 (-28 %) | 65.13 (-33 %) | 58.44 (-34 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 114.05 (+6 %) | 118.50 (+15 %) | 122.88 (+25 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 145.19 (+34 %) | 180.98 (+71 %) | 225.87 (+118 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 109.04 (+1 %) | 114.89 (+12 %) | 123.76 (+26 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed price.
What has to go right for Ares, and what could go wrong?
The base is anchored by the $5.76937 next-twelve-month EPS estimate, which implies about $1,306 million of earnings at roughly 226.3 million public shares. First-half FRE was up 20%, but ARCC non-accruals rose from 1.8% to 2.4%, so growth is credible without being certain. Management's 16%–20% FRE target supports the base and bull paths, but is not a net-income guarantee.
How much cash does Ares really make?
Stock pay adds a second distinction. Subtracting it from free cash flow produces this memo’s “real free cash flow,” which recognizes dilution as an ownership cost. It does not mean that the stock awards were cash paid that year. Working capital also matters because receivables and compensation payable can shift cash between periods.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,266,959 | 2,791,154 | -233,261 | -734,112 | -2,596,045 |
| − Capital spending | 72,178 | 91,509 | 67,183 | 35,796 | 27,226 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,194,781 | 2,699,645 | -300,444 | -769,908 | -2,623,271 |
| − Stock pay | 740,549 | 352,851 | 255,965 | 200,391 | 237,191 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,454,232 | 2,346,794 | -556,409 | -970,299 | -2,860,462 |
What this means. Cash from operations swings sharply because it includes purchases and sales of investment funds, not just the company's everyday business.
What does an investor pay for Ares today?
Ares looks cheaper on forward earnings than on trailing earnings, but those measures describe different layers of the business.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 113.07 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 19.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 12.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.5% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.8% |
What this means. The lower price-to-earnings number for the next year means analysts expect the company’s profit per share to rise sharply from the past year.