3i stock forecast
The weighted 3i forecast is 3,295.66p in October 2029, including dividends. It hinges on Action’s earnings, valuation and cash generation.
Where could 3i’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is 2,551.49p in October 2027, a 10% return including dividends. By October 2029, it is 3,295.66p, a 48% return including dividends. The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case and 50% to the base case. The bull case gets 20%.
The weighted price reaches 2887.67 in October 2028, equivalent to a 28% return. But the range remains wide: by October 2029, the bear case is 1925.54 and the bull case is 4842.46, compared with today’s 2406.00.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 2158.83 (-7%) | 2045.85 (-8%) | 1925.54 (-10%) |
| Base | 50% | 2645.23 (+14%) | 3040.85 (+34%) | 3499.02 (+57%) |
| Bull | 20% | 2906.14 (+25%) | 3767.42 (+65%) | 4842.46 (+115%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 2551.49 (+10%) | 2887.67 (+28%) | 3295.66 (+48%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right or wrong for 3i?
NAV is the main engine. The forecast starts from an estimated current book value of about £31,150m, based on post-dividend NAV and the reduced share count. The base case grows NAV to £43,515m by October 2029, using the company’s 15% annual total-return target as its planning anchor. The bear case reaches only £32,780m because slower Action growth and weaker marks absorb much of that return. The bull case reaches £49,779m because Action sustains earnings growth and exits support carrying values.
How much cash does 3i really make?
The conventional bridge also looks healthy. Cash from operations was £998 million. After capital spending, lease payments and interest, free cash flow was £926 million. After treating stock awards as an economic cost to shareholders, “real” free cash flow was £914 million. But operating cash flow included £68 million of investment purchases and £853 million of investment proceeds, dividends and transfers between investment subsidiaries. It is real cash, but not pure cash from running businesses.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 998 | 763 | 366 | 727 | 490 |
| − Capital spending | 1 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| − Interest paid | 66 | 60 | 40 | 54 | 52 |
| = Free cash flow | 926 | 681 | 317 | 667 | 434 |
| = Real free cash flow | 914 | 653 | 276 | 640 | 409 |
What does an investor pay for 3i today?
NAV estimates what each share represents after adding the value of investments and other assets and deducting liabilities. It resembles valuing a house, subtracting its mortgage and dividing the remaining equity among the owners. 3i reported NAV of 3,131p at June 2026; after its 48p dividend, the comparable figure was 3,083p. At 2,406.00p, the shares trade about 22% below it. That is not cash which shareholders can demand, because 3i continues to manage the portfolio.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 2,406.00 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 4.5x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 0.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.5% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings figure uses an analyst's profit estimate, not a promise or forecast from the company.