Interactive Brokers Group stock forecast
The probability-weighted price is $81.53 in October 2027, compared with $86.03 on October 16, 2026. Interactive Brokers Group's forecast hinges on turning account growth into balances and activity fast enough to outrun rate pressure, dilution and outside ownership.
Where could Interactive Brokers Group's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is $81.53 in October 2027, a 5% loss including dividends. It is $84.07 in October 2028, a 1% loss. It reaches $86.42 in October 2029, a 3% gain. By the last date, the range is $45.74 to $145.74. Today’s reference price is $86.03.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 61.18 (-28 %) | 52.04 (-38 %) | 45.74 (-45 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 83.36 (-2 %) | 84.08 (-1 %) | 83.34 (-0 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 101.92 (+19 %) | 124.05 (+46 %) | 145.74 (+73 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 81.53 (-5 %) | 84.07 (-1 %) | 86.42 (+3 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Interactive Brokers Group?
The base case assumes steady growth, moderate dilution, gradual dividend increases and some valuation compression.
Bear revenue is $7,600 million in the first year and $7,900 million in the second. Margin falls from 17.0% to 16.5%, so earnings reach $1,304 million before settling at $1,312 million on final revenue of $8,200 million and a 16.0% margin. The bull case begins with $8,200 million of revenue and reaches $9,840 million in the second year. Final revenue is $11,800 million, with margin rising from 19.0% to 20.0%; earnings reach $1,919 million and then $2,360 million. The spread reflects rate exposure: a 25-basis-point move changes annual NII by $83 million. Softer activity also matters, as annualized cleared DARTs per account fell from 213 to 203.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 1,480 (1,292 / 1,558) | 1,647 (1,304 / 1,919) | 1,813 (1,312 / 2,360) |
| Shares (millions) | 462 (465 / 459) | 470 (476 / 464) | 479 (488 / 470) |
| Dividends per share | 0.60 (0.60 / 0.60) | 0.80 (0.60 / 1.00) | 1.00 (0.60 / 1.40) |
| Price to earnings | 26.00 (22.00 / 30.00) | 24.00 (19.00 / 30.00) | 22.00 (17.00 / 29.00) |
What this means. The price to earnings number shows how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of the company's earnings.
How much cash does Interactive Brokers Group really make?
Operating cash flow reached $15,811 million in 2025, including a $38,993 million increase in amounts payable to customers. After $67 million of capital spending, reported free cash flow was $15,744 million. Its 253.7% margin is therefore an accounting signal to investigate, not money that can simply be paid out.
IBKR’s “real free cash flow” subtracts $118 million of stock compensation and comes to $15,626 million. That subtraction recognizes dilution’s economic cost, but it does not remove customer obligations, restricted cash, regulatory capital needs or earnings belonging to other owners.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 15,811 | 8,724 | 4,544 | 3,968 | 5,896 |
| − Capital spending | 67 | 49 | 49 | 69 | 77 |
| = Free cash flow | 15,744 | 8,675 | 4,495 | 3,899 | 5,819 |
| − Stock pay | 118 | 112 | 100 | 92 | 80 |
| = Real free cash flow | 15,626 | 8,563 | 4,395 | 3,807 | 5,739 |