Schwab stock forecast
Schwab's weighted price is $105.33 in October 2027. It hinges on persistent cash sorting and higher replacement funding costs.
Where could Schwab's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $105.33 in October 2027. That represents a 13% total return including dividends. It reaches $121.53 in October 2028, or 32%, and $141.90 in October 2029, or 55%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 82.44 (-11 %) | 82.12 (-10 %) | 83.67 (-7 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 108.66 (+17 %) | 126.61 (+37 %) | 148.01 (+62 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 124.80 (+34 %) | 156.81 (+70 %) | 197.90 (+115 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 105.33 (+13 %) | 121.53 (+32 %) | 141.90 (+55 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average expected share value after giving each possible outcome its stated probability.
What has to go right or wrong for Schwab?
Persistent cash sorting during 2027–2029 would move the forecast toward bear by weakening deposits, net interest margin, earnings, and buybacks. Market weakness or slower asset gathering would pressure fee revenue and the multiple. An expense miss would undermine the 800-basis-point operating-leverage promise.
How much cash does Schwab really make?
Schwab’s cash flow is substantial, but customer and regulatory movements make it unlike an industrial company’s cash flow. Operating cash less capital spending is a useful starting point, and stock compensation should also be treated as an economic cost because shareholders absorb the dilution.
The warning is clearest in 2023. Operating cash was far above net income because Schwab released US$23,759 million from investments segregated for regulatory purposes. That cash was real, but it reflected a balance-sheet movement rather than a surge in ordinary service revenue.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 9,311 | 2,670 | 19,587 | 2,057 | 2,118 |
| − Capital spending | 548 | 620 | 700 | 971 | 916 |
| = Free cash flow | 8,763 | 2,050 | 18,887 | 1,086 | 1,202 |
| − Stock pay | 317 | 337 | 320 | 366 | 254 |
| = Real free cash flow | 8,446 | 1,713 | 18,567 | 720 | 948 |
What does an investor pay for Schwab today?
The first question is whether Schwab’s current price is paying for durable earnings. Its trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, measures the share price against the profit earned per share over the past year, making it a useful starting point for a company whose businesses are closely connected.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 94.16 |
| Market value (calculated) | 162,834.25 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 166,142.25 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.4% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is only an estimate and may be wrong.